Hail in Georgia, June 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SCT SH/TS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEE OF THE MTNS WITH ISO
CONVECTION EAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE U80S TO AROUND 90
WITH DWPTS IN THE MID TO U60S. LAPS INDICATES THAT EAST OF THE MTNS
CAPES HAVE POOLED TO 3K J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT WITH 0-6 KM
STM MTN REMAINING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
THAT THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
WITH THE PIEDMONT BECOMING SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
SH OR TS THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. PW/S SHOULD REMAIN >1.5 WITH K-INDEX
>40 THIS EVENING...STATIONARY STORMS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ISO SVR HAIL AND
WIND EVENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL SEA BREEZE MOISTURE...CHANCES
FOR FOG DEVELOPING LOOK HIGH FOR TONIGHT. WILL FORECAST AREAS OF
DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG WITH PATCHY FOG EAST. NAM AND GFS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REACHING
THE U80S TO L90S AND DWPTS IN THE U60S. IN ADDITION...WEAK H5 S/W
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST HELPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LEE TROF
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL AGAIN ADVERTISE SCT SH/TS WITH GREATEST
FAVORED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WED AND THU WITH PERSISTENT SE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE
OF ATLANTIC RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW MOS AND FORECAST A GRADUAL LOWERING
OF AFTERNOON MAXES. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF A CHC EACH DAY FOR
SH/TS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
KEEPS A MOIST SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE WEAKENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHIFTING THE FLOW MORE
SWLY. HOWEVER HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES. MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK OROGRAPHICS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPS/DEW POINTS...AFT/EVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY. TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY RISE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ATMOS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE RIDGES ATTM.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AND/OR MOVE OFF THE RIDGES INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND UPSTATE/NE GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP VCTS ALL SITES AND INCLUDE EARLY TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT KAVL
WHERE CELLS ARE CLOSING IN. VCTS ENDS ABOUT 02Z...THEN FOG BECOMES
THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH ALL SITES
BECOMING MFVR...THEN TEMPO IFR KHKY/KAND. ANY RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE
SITES WILL LIKELY MEAN IFR OR WORSE. THE MAIN CHANGE I MADE TO
PERSISTENCE IS KAVL. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG LAST NITE EVEN IN FRENCH
BROAD. KAVL STARTED TO SOCK IN...THEN LIFTED TO AND REMAINED AT
MVFR. WITH RAIN LIKELY THERE...AND MDLS INDICATING IFR...WENT WITH
PREDOMINANT IFR AND TEMPO LIFR NEAR SUNRISE. ANOTHER FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE OVERNIGHT ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD KCLT. THIS
REMAINED WELL EAST OF KCLT LAST NIGHT...AND MDLS KEEP IT EAST OF
THERE TONIGHT...BUT IT DOES COME CLOSE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LIFR
CONDITIONS IF IT MADE IN...BUT MENTIONING IT MAINLY AS A HEADS UP
FOR NOW.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-072100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
456 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SLOW
THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
MANY OF THE STORMS. PLEASE REFER TO CAESPSGSP...AS WELL AS WARNING
PRODUCTS FOR SHORT TERM INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
808 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-070115-
ELBERT-FRANKLIN GA-HABERSHAM-HART-RABUN-STEPHENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLARKESVILLE...CLAYTON...ELBERTON...
HARTWELL...TOCCOA
808 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

AT 8 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CRAWFORD...TO COMMERCE...TO
AROUND CLEVELAND. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS FAR EAST AS
CARNESVILLE...TOCCOA...AND CLARKESVILLE BY 9 PM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
829 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

NCZ037-070130-
DAVIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MOCKSVILLE
829 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING NORTHEAST
DAVIE COUNTY...

AT 8:25 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE FORSYTH COUNTY LINE...JUST SOUTH OF I-40.
THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. THROUGH 9:30 PM...THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THIS STORM WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS RAINFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HALF INCH
DIAMETER HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
902 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKESVILLE            34.61N 83.52W
06/06/2005                   HABERSHAM          GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COMMS CENTER REPORTS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            COUNTYWIDE

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARNESVILLE             34.37N 83.23W
06/06/2005                   FRANKLIN           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COMMS CENTER REPORTS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            COUNTYWIDE

&&

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
911 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-019-070215-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENWOOD-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...GREENWOOD
911 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF THE UPSTATE...

AT 9 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM ELBERTON...TO TOCCOA...
TO CLAYTON IN GEORGIA. THESE STORMS WILL CROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER BY AROUND 9:30 PM...LIKELY REACHING LOCATIONS FROM STARR AND
IVA...TO TOWNVILLE AND WALHALLA BETWEEN 10 AND 10:30 PM. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR...HAIL AS LARGE AS PENNIES...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
921 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SW WESTMINSTER        34.58N 83.19W
06/06/2005                   STEPHENS           GA   UNKNOWN

            PUBLIC REPORTED TOPS BROKEN OUT OF SEVERAL 40+ FOOT TREES

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
921 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SW WESTMINSTER        34.58N 83.19W
06/06/2005                   OCONEE             SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED TOPS BROKEN OUT OF SEVERAL 40+ FOOT TREES
            ALONG HIGHWAY 123 NEAR THE STATE LINE

&&

LANE