Flood in Georgia, July 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA IS BEING INTERRUPTED
BY A FEW SHORT WAVES (S/W) WHICH HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO TAP FOR
STORMS. ONE AREA OF S/W ENERGY IS MOVING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF ST
AUGUSTINE...ANOTHER AREA IS ALONG GA/AL BORDER INTO THE MIDDLE
PANHANDLE AND STILL MORE NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE MODELS SHOW ALMOST
CONTINUOUS SUCCESSION OF VORTICITY NEXT 36 HRS. THUS WILL GO WITH 50-
60% POPS THIS EVENING AND 30-40% FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH A
FRONT LYING NORTH OF THE AREA SE GA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF SUNDAY MORN AND MOVING ENE. BY SUN AFTN STORMS ARE LIKELY
FOR AREA NORTH OF I-10 WITH GOOD CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER FL PENINSULA SUNDAY AFTN BUT WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE SW TO WEST FLOW AROUND RIDGE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM GULF AND CARIBBEAN INTO THE REGION.
THE NAM INDICATES HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ERN GULF MONDAY AFTN AND
CUTTING OFF SUPPLY OF TRPCL MSTR BUT THE GFS CONTINUES WITH THE
MOIST FLOW. WILL COMPROMISE WITH 40-50% FOR MON/TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WED/THU
THEN HIGH PRESS BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED BY END OF WEEK. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE RIDGE ANCHORED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE RATHER BENIGN EXCEPT NEAR THE
SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  91  73  93 /  50  70  40  50
SSI  76  88  75  89 /  50  60  40  40
JAX  74  90  74  92 /  60  50  30  40
SGJ  75  88  75  90 /  60  50  30  40
GNV  74  90  74  93 /  50  50  20  50
OCF  74  91  74  93 /  50  40  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TRABERT
MARINE/FIRE WX...ZIBURA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-031000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON AND WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL
BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS.
BECAUSE THE GROUNDS ARE MORE THAN SATURATED ACROSS THE JACKSONVILLE
METRO AREA AS WELL AS JUST NORTHWEST OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA...THESE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY CAUSE FLOODING ESPECIALLY
OVER LOW LYING SPOTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE STORMS WILL TAPER
OFF DURING THE EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
STORM SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
OR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
211 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

GAZ149-021900-
ATKINSON-
211 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ATKINSON COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES WEST OF PEARSON...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
PEARSON AND AXSON THROUGH 300 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH IS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZIBURA