Winter Weather in Georgia, February 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 AM EST WED FEB 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
UPDATE TO BE ISSUED SOON TO INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ALL OF OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES...INLCUDING THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA EXCEPT ELBERT AND THE
WESTERN MOST UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES BORDERING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW PRECIPITATION...WITH ENHANCED
RETURNS...APPROACHING OUR AREA RAPIDLY. AIRMASS STILL QUITE COLD
AND THE MORNING COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE MESSY. THE ADVISORY
WILL GO THROUGH NOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED FEB 2 2005

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
IF PUNXATAWNEY PHIL LIVED IN WESTERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
OR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...HE MOST LIKELY WOULD NOT SEE HIS SHADOW TODAY
AND AS LEGEND HAS IT...WE COULD REST ASSURED THAT WINTER WOULD NOT
BE EXTENDED ANY LONGER THAN NECESSARY. BUT HE DOES NOT LIVE HERE...
AND WINTER ROLLS ON WITH THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN SURFACE
WAVES TO BRING A THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST
AREA...BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE THURSDAY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EXCEPT
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF GRAHAM...SWAIN AND MACON. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WATCH AREA...IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH LEVELS REQUIRED FOR A WATCH OR WARNING...
BUT THOSE LOCATIONS COULD REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BY THE
DAY SHIFT LATER TODAY.

IN A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO...THE NAM IS NEARLY
A MIRROR IMAGE OF THE GFS AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE TWO GUIDANCE PACKAGES REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF THE
APPROACHING GULF SURFACE LOW...AT LEAST UNTIL OUR PART OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NEARING AN END. EVEN THEIR UPPER AIR
FEATURES ARE HANDLED SIMILARLY UNTIL A BIG DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH
THE UPPER LOW AS IT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THUS...
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH GREATER NOW FOR THE INITIAL PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD STEADILY NORTHWARD TODAY...BUT LOTS OF DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR TO BE OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION IN
SOME FORM SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE FAR WESTERN CWFA BY MIDDAY...AND TO
MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA BY EVENING. STRONG UPGLIDE
LATER TODAY SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE EASTERN
ESCARPMENT. IF THE MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION MAKE IT IN HERE
BEFORE THE PREDAWN...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TO A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE...WITH SOME
UPSTATE LOCATIONS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ALSO SEEING CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE CRITICAL AT ONSET AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
THE INITIALLY DRY SOUNDINGS COULD LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
FREEZING.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE AMOUNT OF SLEET AND SNOW THAT WILL
FALL IN THE FAR WESTERN CWFA MAY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY CERTAINLY A WARNING IS UNJUSTIFIED FOR TODAY. WE STILL
HAVE A LITTLE TIME TO THINK ON IT...BUT WE MAY JUST ISSUE A
STATEMENT HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF WINTRY WEATHER AND FOREGO AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. IT DOESN/T APPEAR TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
FREEZING LONG...EVEN ONCE PRECIPTATION ONSET BEGINS...SO SOME
QUESTION HOW MUCH OF A TRAVEL INCONVENIENCE ANY RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FOR
TODAY COULD CAUSE.

BOTH NAM AND GFS PRODUCE A WARM NOSE OF SOME SORT ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOUNDINGS. BIG QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW RELIABLE THE WARM
NOSE IS...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM...WHICH INITIALIZED WITH 85H
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES TOO WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MORE CONSERVATIVE WARM NOSE ON GFS SUGGESTS SLEET WILL BE A MAJOR
COMPONENT IN THE PRECIPITATION SCHEME. WE WILL PLAN SOME SORT OF
SLEET/SNOW MENTION EARLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AS
SOUNDINGS SATURATE...AND RAIN/SLEET WORDING NORTHEAST GEORGIA FAR
WESTERN UPSTATE EARLY. EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
RAIN BUT COULD SEE SLEET AT ONSET.

STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA...MUCH OF
THIS INITIAL BATCH WILL BE SPENT SATURATING THE COLUMN...WHILE
SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD JUST GET MORE SATURATED. MOSTLY RAIN EARLY
UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE TRANSITIONAL
PERIODS OF SLEET. MOSTLY SNOW FOR ALL OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR...WHERE SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST A SMIDGEN OF THE LOWER LAYERS
ABOVE FREEZING AND WHERE WARM NOSE NOT AS SIGNIFICANT.

APPROACH OF UPPER LOW...AND RESULTANT COOLING OF THE COLUMN...
SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
EVENT WINDS DOWN. THIS COULD ALSO SPUR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH. NAM DEEPER WITH UPPER LOW...AND SLOWER IN
ITS PROGRESSION...AND CORRESPONDING QPF. GFS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND PROGRESSIVE. SOUNDINGS COOL REGIONWIDE SO FOR EVEN
THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE EVENT COULD WIND DOWN
OVERNIGHT AS A SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
RAIN...ESPECILLY FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN CORRIDOR OF OUR CWFA...DAVIE AND ROWAN WEST
TO THE MOUNTAINS...SO THAT EXPLAINS THESE AREAS INCLUSION IN
WINTER STORM WATCH. HAVE NOT DONE SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS YET BUT SUSPECT
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWFA WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH. ANY SNOW THAT
DOES FALL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NITE...THOUGH...SHOULD BE WET
SNOW.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE COAST AND SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT TO SEE...
AND A WEAK UPPER VORT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SPARK A NEW ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER THURSDAY NITE AND EARLY FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES WERE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS.

 &&

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIODS. MODELS
STILL SHOWING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING WITH MOISTURE FOR
MONDAY.

 &&

AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE SHARPENING OVER AREA IS KEEPING MOST MOISTURE TO THE
SW...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER AREA TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES E AND A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SFC
LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE FROM NEAR THE GULF TOWARD THE REGION
LATER TODAY...RINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE MIX. BKN TO OVC HIGH
CLOUDS AND SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LOW AND MID CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN. CIG AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH SCT RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE THIS AFTN. CIG AND VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY LATE
EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET MAY MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE MTNS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. RAIN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-026-028 UNTIL
     12 PM EST.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ051-058-059-062-063 UNTIL
     12 PM EST.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ033>035-037-038-048>050-
     052>057-059-063>067 TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ001-002-004-005-
     010 UNTIL 12 PM EST.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...SAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 AM EST WED FEB 2 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-031200-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
612 AM EST WED FEB 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY...BRINGING A
WIDE RANGE OF VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  SNOW AND
SLEET WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY...WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.  THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL LATE TODAY.  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING TO EXPIRE AT NOON WHICH INCLUDES THE WESTERN
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...MOST OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.  THIS INFORMATION IS
DETAILED IN PRODUCT...CAEWSWGSP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
TONIGHT REACHING THE GEORGIA COAST ON THURSDAY.  A WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INCLUDING MOST OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  THIS IS DETAILED IN PRODUCT... CAEWSWGSP. A
WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE WITH ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTING TO A FEW INCHES
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE LESS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.  MOTORISTS SHOULD
AVOID DRIVING IN THE WATCH AREA IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.  ALL SNOW WILL
END FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 30S AGAIN
WHICH COULD MAKE A MARGINAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT.  WE WILL
ADDRESS THIS EVENT WITH MORE DETAIL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TO OBTAIN SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THIS EVENT.

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
509 AM EST WED FEB 2 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-068>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-021700-
ABBEVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-CABARRUS NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MECKLENBURG NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-RABUN GA-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-SWAIN NC-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YORK SC-
509 AM EST WED FEB 2 2005

...A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA - NORTHEAST
GEORGIA - UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA...

A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVEN SOME SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM WAYNESVILLE TO ANDERSON. OVER THE UPSTATE...THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY AS RAIN AND SLEET...AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO WARM BY THE TIME THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS FOR IT TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. IN THE
MOUNTAINS THERE ARE LIKELY TO SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS A LITTLE MORE SLEET
AND SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND FEW PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON AREA ROADS. HOWEVER...IF
THE PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...CONDITIONS
COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN UPSTATE AND
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD THEN BE ISSUED.

FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AIR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME A MIX OF RAIN AND
SLEET DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY JUST A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED...MIXED AT TIMES WITH A LITTLE
SLEET. LATER ON THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE RAIN COULD MIX
WITH MORE SNOW AND SLEET...OR EVEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY EVENING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT.

MCAVOY