High Wind in Georgia, April 2 to 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

AREA IN NW UPPER FLOW IN WAKE OF LIFTING CLOSED LOW. SNOW REPORTS
FROM SMOKY MTS INDICATE WARNING CRITERIA AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...AND
WILL UPGRADE SNOW ADVISORY TN LINE TO HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT....CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. WILL ADD SNOW
ADVISORY TO MACON AND S JACKSON. LATEST ETA WINDS SUGGEST HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA WILL GET STARTED N NC MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ALSO
EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GA MTS AND LAURENS TO ELBERT COS IN
PIEDMONT. INCREASED POPS PIEDMONT FOR ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM GA.
COLD/DRY START THIS MORNING...SO LOWERED DEW POINTS PER GFS AND
TEMPS ABOUT ONE DEGREE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 355 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH SOME CONVECTION
LINGERING IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...ESP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NC MNTNS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENN ATTM...IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE  UPPER
LOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST. WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CG/S
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NC MNTN CONVECTION...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG
CAA WILL OVERTAKE THE MNTNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN
FACT...EXPECT TODAYS MAX TO OCCUR AROUND 6 AM ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FEET THIS
MORNING...AND MAY DIP AS LOW AS 3000 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET.
CONSIDERED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE TENN BORDER COUNTIES...BUT SINCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL OCCUR OVER SUCH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE
AREA...WILL ADDRESS SNOW CONCERNS IN AN SPS.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WIND...BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS STRONG CAA AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MNTNS. LAKE WIND ADVISORY SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. THE WIND SITUATION COULD BE MUCH MORE SERIOUS TONIGHT...AS
50 TO 60 KNOT JET DESCENDS TO ABOUT 4000...AND VERY STRONG AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WILL HOIST A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
THE NC MNTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS RABUN COUNTY IN
GEORGIA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME WEAK ENERGY
TOPPING THE RIDGE AXIS MIGHT BRING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN PLAINS TUESDAY THEN
OPENING UP LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEP TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HAVE SLIGHTLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCE UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY OWING TO MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP. THURSDAY COULD BE MORE INTERESTING
FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SINCE THE PATTERN SHOWN IS HIGH AMPLITUDE
AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR COLD AIR DAMMING...UNLIKE PREVIOUS TWO EVENTS.
FEW CHANGES WILL BE MADE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

AVIATION...
DEEP SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OFF TO THE NE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THROUGH 12Z...FORECAST CONCERN WILL REMAIN AS CEILING AND
PRECIP TIMING. WILL KEEP PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH 12Z...AFTER 12Z NAM
INDICATES THAT LLVL MOISTURE WILL ERODE IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS REACHING ABOVE
20KTS BY MID MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 20KTS OR MORE WITH
GUST INTO THE LOWER 30S...A FEW KNOTS STRONGER AT KAVL. UPSLOPE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAVL BY LATE AFTERNOON AS RA WITH A FEW
SN FLAKES MIXED IN DURING THE EVENING. KAVL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH 6Z WITH LINGERING NW FLOW. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE
BETWEEN 01-03Z...HOWEVER SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
TEENS OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 FROM 6 AM
     SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR GAZ010 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR GAZ010 FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ033-049-050 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
     MONDAY.
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM SUNDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 FROM 6 AM
     SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ034-048-051>055-058-059-062>067 FROM 6
     PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ034-048-051>055-058-059-062>067 FROM 6
     AM MONDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082 FROM 6
     AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6
     PM SATURDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-031046-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
547 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY TONIGHT.
PLEASE SEE CAENPWGSP FOR DETAILS. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PLEASE SEE CAEWSWGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION DURING MID-WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LANE