Hail in Georgia, April 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 PM EDT WED APR 13 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING CENTER OF CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION NEAR NASHVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW / COOL POOL
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO NORTH
GA THIS EVENING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THIS EVENING MAKING FOR STEEPER LAPSE RATES
AND CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THUS WILL STAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE. FEW
STRONGER CELLS MAY STILL PRESENT THREAT OF PEA SIZE HAIL INTO THIS
EVENING GIVEN TEMPS AT 700 TO 500 MB AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF MACON CLOSER TO CLOSED LOW AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS.  LARGE SURFACE HIGH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY. THOUGH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO REACH
TO FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.  SURFACE PRESSURES INCREASE AS
CENTER OF CANADIAN ORIGINATED DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOTS OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
ECMWF AND GFS IN TANDEM WITH PESKY CLOSED LOW OFF THE EAST COAST
GRADUALLY FILLING AND DRIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EAST.  THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  BY WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE AND
CLOUDS AS RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  IN TERMS OF TEMPS...WILL SEE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
MEX GUIDANCE PER DRY AIR MASS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         46  65  47  68 /  20   0   0   0
ATHENS          45  66  44  65 /  30  10   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  65  45  66 /  30  10   0   0
ROME            47  68  44  75 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        50  67  47  73 /  20   0   0   0
MACON           47  66  43  69 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

&&

JCD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1141 AM EDT WED APR 13 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1141 AM EDT WED APR 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE LATE
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTH GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WITH COLD AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL.

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 2 AND CAPES
AROUND 500. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY CLOSE TO
NORTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO THUNDERSTORMS OR OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A STABLE
AIR MASS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 PM EDT WED APR 13 2005

GAZ027-036-038-132030-

353 PM EDT WED APR 13 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL IN OGLETHORPE...CLARKE
AND MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ATHENS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.