High Surf in Florida, September 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1021 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

...BETTER ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE...

.UPDATE...BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE STREAMING INLAND ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF NEWLY FORMED T.D. #16 WHICH IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED
EAST OF SOUTHEAST FL. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING TO OUR NORTH AND THE DEVELOPING
LOW TO OUR SE...CREATING LOCAL NORTH EASTER CONDITIONS. CURRENT LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES LOOKS GOOD WHERE MAGNITUDES
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. INLAND
BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS GOOD WITH
60% ALONG THE COAST TO 40% INLAND. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN TRAILING
PRECIP WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN...AS WILL PERSISTENT AND
STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE REALIZED
OVER THE WATERS WITH NE WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE NOTED OVER THE SC WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON GALES FOR OUR WATERS AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE HAVE NOT BEEN NOTED. BUMPED UP SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE
OFFSHORE TO REFLECT OBS.

SURF...RAISED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE COAST AS OCCASIONAL
BREAKERS TO 7 FT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS FAR SOUTH AS FLAGLER BEACH
JUST PRIOR TO 9 AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  71  85  69 /  20  30  30  30
SSI  82  75  82  77 /  60  50  60  60
JAX  82  73  82  73 /  60  50  60  60
SGJ  83  77  83  77 /  60  50  70  60
GNV  85  74  84  72 /  50  50  60  60
OCF  86  74  85  73 /  60  50  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU...AND ST JOHNS...CLAY...AND PUTNAM.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR DUVAL...NASSAU...ST JOHNS...CLAY AND
     PUTNAM COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     INLAND CAMDEN...INLAND GLYNN...COASTAL CAMDEN...AND COASTAL
     GLYNN.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR COASTAL GLYNN AND COASTAL CAMDEN THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE...ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
     NM...ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

ENYEDI/CARROLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-062230-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS CLAY AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST...
...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN TO THE SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN A STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
REFER TO THE LATEST LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

FOR THE COASTAL AREAS...THE LOCAL NORTHEASTER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. HIGH SURF HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
ENTIRE COAST WITH BREAKERS TO NEAR 7 FEET ALONG THE GEORGIA
PORTION...PROMPTING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. SEE THE
LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE INCREASED
WIND AND SWELL ACTION WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES TODAY. REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND RACE RAPIDLY INLAND AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 40 MPH AS
WELL AS PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME AREAS MAY BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE SOME TRAINING OF SHOWERS ALLOWING THE SAME AREAS TO
RECEIVE RAINFALL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS MUCH
TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON DIRECT IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA.  WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THE STRONG LOCAL
NORTHEASTER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
CONTINUATION OF HIGH SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE EAST OF US 301 OVER THE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT MOVEMENT AND FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE
STORM...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOME PORTION OF
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FORECAST AND STATEMENTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE ON
THE THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK