Heavy Rain in Florida, September 27, 2005

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
217 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...
BOTH SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND ARE PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND.  STORM
ACTIVITY IS WORKING ITS WAY NWD UP FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY AS WELL AS
FORMING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. OTHER STORMS FORMING ALONG
A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER HIGHLANDS CO. ALL PRECIP IS EITHER
STATIONARY OR HAS A VERY SLOW NWD DRIFT.

TONIGHT...
A FEEBLE LOW LVL STEERING FLOW CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER FL THANKS TO
THE WEAK PGRAD ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE IN
GOOD SUPPLY...SO LINGERING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST THRU
03Z.  WITHOUT A STRONG STEERING FLOW...ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY MOVE AT LESS THAN 10 MPH AND THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE. EXPECT MOST OF INSTABILITY OVER THE COASTAL ZONES TO BE
WORKED OVER BEFORE THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT PD.  WILL OPT FOR 20
POPS ALONG THE COAST AND FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY DUE TO ITS PRONOUNCED
LAKE SHADOW...30 POPS FOR THE NRN INTERIOR AND OSCEOLA CO.

WED-THU...TUTT CENTERED JUST EAST OF FL IS SHOWN DRIFTING SLOWLY
N-NE. ASCD COLD POOL W/H5 TEMPS AS LOW AS -9C DRIFT NE IN
CONJUNCTION W/FEATURE WITH MOVEMENT OVER THE OPEN ATLC BY EARLY THU.
LOWER LEVEL FEATURES WL COMPLICATE FORECAST AS MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT
IS INDICATED ALONG FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEX WED/THU.
RESULTANT WEAK FLOW REGIME ALONG WITH STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
WL INCREASE DIURNALLY IN LINE WITH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON SFC HTG AS
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COME TOGETHER. GFS GUID INDICATES
AROUND 60 PERCENT COVERAGE WITH NAM REMAINING IN SCT CATEGORY.
LIMITING FACTOR WL BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND WILL THUS KEEP SCT
COVERAGE FOR NOW. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATE/LOWER WB ZERO HEIGHT. THURSDAY...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND FOCUS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
WHERE LINGERING HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL PERSIST. LESS CERTAIN ON
EFFECTS OF LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF AS INDICATED BY GFS AND
WL KEEP POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTH

FRI THROUGH MON...EARLY SEASON COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI WITH FL REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE
PLAINS AND REINFORCES THIS RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR COASTAL SHOWERS TO
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONITORING DEVELOPING LOW OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PROJECTED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN AREA ON A
GENERAL NW HEADING AROUND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT LOW IN ATLANTIC WILL
PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. SWELLS IN THE 10 TO 11 SEC RANGE WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
MAINLY AT LOW TIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE WEEKEND BETWEEN HIGH MOVING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRI AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIB. WINDS/SEAS
WL BECOME INCREASINGLY TIED TO LOCAL WINDS WITH SEA HEIGHTS
GENERALLY 4 FT OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU 06Z WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES
22Z-02Z. ISOLD MVFR SHRA OVER THE COAST...SCT MVFR SHRA/ISOLD IFR
TSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.  AFT 06Z LCL MVFR GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT
KDAB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  70  88  /  20  50  30  30
MCO  73  88  73  89  /  30  50  30  30
MLB  74  88  71  89  /  20  50  30  30
VRB  72  88  70  89  /  20  50  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
515 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
280915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
515 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE AND TOWARDS LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLLISION BETWEEN
THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED NEAR THE KISSIMMEE RIVER AND
ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ORLANDO AND DAYTONA. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A CONTINUED LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE AROUND LOW
TIDE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SWIM ONLY NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND
IF NONE ARE ON DUTY...DO NOT ENTER THE SURF IF YOU ARE A POOR
SWIMMER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO REMAIN A
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

HIRSCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FLZ059-272015-
ST. LUCIE-
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

...STRONG STORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...5
MILES WEST OF SAINT LUCIE WEST. THIS STORM IS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH 4 PM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
2 INCHES...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THIS STORM. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MRV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
413 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FLZ054-059-272045-
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-
413 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

...STRONG STORM OVER NORTHERN SAINT LUCIE COUNTY MOVING NORTH...

AT 413 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL 11 MILES WEST OF FORT PIERCE
...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL ALSO CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORM WILL MOVE
NORTH JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ACROSS NORTHERN SAINT LUCIE INTO
SOUTHERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY THROUGH 440 PM.

MRV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
441 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FLZ047-054-272115-
INDIAN RIVER-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
441 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

...STRONG STORM MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL 11 MILES SOUTH OF
FELLSMERE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL ALSO CONTAIN
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORM
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD BLUE CYPRESS LAKE AND THEN TOWARD FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF BREVARD COUNTY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

MRV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
642 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FLZ045-046-053-272330-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
642 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...WESTERN SEMINOLE
COUNTY...AND NORTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY

AT 635 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. ONE WAS NEAR PLYMOUTH...APOPKA AND WEKIVA SPRINGS. ANOTHER
EXTENDED FROM NEAR MAITLAND...TO WINTER PARK AND THE ATTRACTIONS
AREA. A THIRD WAS IN OSCEOLA COUNTY FROM SAINT CLOUD AND HARMONY TO
NEAR LAKES KISSIMMEE AND MARIAN. THE LINE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.
THESE STORMS PRODUCED PEA SIZED HAIL IN APOPKA AT 640 PM.

THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

PERSONS IN THESE COMMUNITIES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS
END. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING NEAR
THESE STORMS.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
740 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FLZ045-280000-
ORANGE-
740 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

...STRONG STORM OVER WEST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 735 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR WINTER GARDEN. THE
STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS STORM WILL DRIFT WEST AT
10 MPH TOWARD KILLARNEY THROUGH 8 PM.

MRV