Rip Current in Florida, September 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
907 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

.SHORT TERM...GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON OPHELIA AMONG
THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD ITS
SOLUTION TODAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE VERY DRY AIR THAT WAS OVER
THE WESTERN CWA YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE GULF...ONLY TO
BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA THAT HAS ENGULFED THE FORECAST AREA.
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OPHELIA WILL YIELD
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
90...COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN WILL RESULT IN LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE DRIER AIR COMES AN INCREASING
FIRE WX CONCERN AND HAS RESULTED IN RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH JAX AND TAE SHOW
MORE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE FIRST 100MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAN
MODELS HAVE PROJECTED. ALTHOUGH AND EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
MIXING HEIGHTS IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON...THEY SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN A GOOD PORTION OF THIS DRY AIR. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S...BUT IF WE MIX DOWN WHAT
THE SOUNDINGS SHOW WE WILL SEE SOME LOWER 50S AND RED FLAG AREA
WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED. WILL TRY TO GET A TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND WILL ISSUE ANY UPDATES WITH THE SMOKE DISPERSION AND
UPDATED RFW.

&&

.MARINE...LACK OF REPORTS MAKES IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY ANALYSIS BUT
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HAMILTON...AND SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY
FOR      THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
     NM...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

DEESE/TRABERT/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING
TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. SEE THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

INTERESTS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS ON HURRICANE OPHELIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP/MKT