Lightning Strike in Florida, November 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.PUBLIC...AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION COMPOSED MOSTLY
OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
HAMILTON COUNTY TO ALACHUA COUNTY THIS HOUR. THE WARM FRONT HAS
LIFTED INTO CENTRAL GA WITH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE JAX CWA. TEMPS HAVE RAPIDLY WARMED FROM NEAR 60
MINS TO THE LOWER 70S AROUND 9AM WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. SKIES HAVE QUICKLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT ANY BREAKS
IN THE DECK WILL LEAD TO QUICK DE-STABILIZATION. LOW LVL WINDS ARE SE
AND JUST ABOVE THE SFC WINDS ARE VEERING MORE S WITH A 30-40KTS LOW
LEVEL JET PER KJAX AND KTLH 12Z RAOBS.

FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS 60-70% (50% FOR COASTAL
SE FL ZONES) WITH THE MENTION OF ISOLD STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM THE GULF WILL BE FOCUSED...MAINLY THIS AFTN
ESPECIALLY AS A VEERING PROFILE BECOMES ENHANCED AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WE ARE LIKELY ONLY 5-8 DEGS FROM OUR MAX TEMPS TODAY DUE
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN
ENOUGH TO KEEP TSTORMS ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WINDS ARE SE 15 KTS
OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 4-5 FT. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTN IS EXPECTED TO BRING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
TO THE OFFSHORE LEG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  63  71  45 /  60  60  60   0
SSI  74  66  72  51 /  60  50  60  10
JAX  77  65  75  51 /  60  50  60  10
SGJ  76  68  75  56 /  50  50  60  20
GNV  77  65  75  50 /  60  60  60  10
OCF  78  65  76  52 /  60  60  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
515 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-291100-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
515 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES TODAY. MORE
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SURF ZONE FORECAST.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MZ