Hail in Florida, May 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2005

.SHORT TERM(TNGT-THURS)...MODELS ARE INDICATING SIMILAR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE
DETAILS REMAIN RATHER INCONSISTENT.  STILL APPEARS THAT LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES EAST IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD DEVELOP IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG OLD
BOUNDARY AND THIS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOS GUIDANCE POPS HAVE COME IN BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS (30-40%) FOR TONIGHT...CHANCE TO
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY (50-60%)...AND CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (40-50%).
ON THURSDAY NAM PUSHES DEEPEST MOISTURE QUICKLY EAST OUT INTO
ATLANTIC AS SHORT WAVE MOVES BY WHILE THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH AND
HOLDS ON TO THE MOISTURE LONGER.  WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD GFS
AND LEAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-TUE)...WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL RUNS...WE ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.  WHILE THE LESS
AMPLIFIED 500 MB TROUGH IN THE NAM LOOKS MORE BELIEVABLE THAN THE
GFS CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY...THE GFS DOES
HAVE SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF.  I WILL BE
LEANING TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL GFS FOR THIS PACKAGE.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
NIGHT...FINALLY ALLOWING OUR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO BEGIN ITS TREK
TO THE EAST.  THIS WILL TAKE THE BEST DYNAMICS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OUR FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONGLY
CYCLONIC ALOFT ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.  THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
BE RIGHT OVER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL HAVE SETTLED IN
ABOVE 700 MB.  FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS
SOUTH WHERE DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL EXIST.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH SURFACE
AND ALOFT WITH VERY DRY AIR.  WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE EASTERLY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON IF THE GRADIENT FLOW
DOES NOT GET TOO STRONG.

THE TYPICAL DRY MAY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH
PERIOD...BUT COULD INCREASE SOME IF LOW PRESSURE DOES DEVELOP IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  OTHERWISE NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY SEE
A FEW READINGS BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...DURATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 4 HOURS SO NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.  NO OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES KEEPING RH VALUES WELL ABOVE WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66 82 68 82 / 40 60 50 50
FMY  68 84 68 84 / 40 60 50 50
GIF  65 83 66 83 / 40 60 50 50
SRQ  65 80 67 81 / 40 60 50 50
BKV  62 82 64 81 / 30 50 40 50

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM....EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
438 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031436-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
438 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ALONG WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. FURTHER TO
THE NORTH OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MEAN SLOW MOVING
STORMS...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO
TWO INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS THE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS TRAVELING TODAY SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PLANNING
ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY.
WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
352 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             5 WSW ARCADIA           27.19N 81.93W
05/03/2005  1.75 INCH        DESOTO             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAIL COVERED THE GROUND. HAIL WAS
            1 INCH DIAMETER AT 345 PM AND INCREASED IN SIZE.

&&

BSG