Hail in Florida, May 3, 2005

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
952 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING NEAR THE SRN TIP OF FL THIS MORNING WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. LATEST ADAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A NW-SE DEW POINT GRADIENT
STILL EXISTS...BUT BECOMING LESS SHARP WITH TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PWATS RISING INTO TONIGHT WITH INCREASING S-SW FLOW THROUGH
LOWER AND MID LEVELS. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING INTO TONIGHT WITH WARMER MOIST S-SW FLOW COMMENCING...
WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND ADAS ANALYSIS INDICATE THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL
BE HIGHER HEADING TOWARD SE SECTIONS WHERE MORE FAVORABLE THETA E/LI
INDICES EXIST. THIS GENERAL TREND SHOWN IN CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 010 IS ADRIFT SO REPORTS ARE UNRELIABLE. BUOY 009 WAS
RECORDING NE WINDS 8-10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT SEAS. EASTERLY GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN 10 KNOT WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON MAYBE A KNOT OR TWO
MORE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZES COME INTO PLAY. NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE ZONES.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT-TERM...GLITTO
LONG-TERM...WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
555 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
041000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
555 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
ORLANDO AND TITUSVILLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE COUNTIES
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORM THREAT
TODAY.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS IN PLACE...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE AS
MUCH AS AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ABOUT A ONE HOUR PERIOD
...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS COULD RESULT IN PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOWER LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING...SOME OF THE STORMS ON THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
138 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2005

FLZ064-031815-
MARTIN-
138 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2005

...STRONG STORM MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 135 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY HAIL AROUND 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JOHNATHAN DICKINSON STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM IN EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY INCLUDE
JOHNATHON DICKINSON STATE PARK AND HOBE SOUND.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

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