Hail in Florida, March 26, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
225 AM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUE)...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF DIFFICULT SHORT TERM
FORECASTS...FIGURING OUT WHEN AND WHERE STRONG CONVECTION WOULD
DEVELOP...THINGS GET EASIER TODAY.  INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF THE
AFFECTS OF SATURDAYS CONVECTION HAVE MADE THIS MORNING A BREEZE...
LITERALLY...AS ESE WINDS OF 10 MPH AND LOWER HUMIDITY (DWPTS OVER
CENTRAL/N ZONES IN THE LM 60S) HAVE LEFT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SUNNY START TO EASTER SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST.  BY LATE MORNING...S FLOW WILL HAVE
BROUGHT BACK THE 70+ DWPTS INTO MOST OF THE AREA...AND BY AFTN
LOCATIONS WELL INLAND WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING (EXCEEDING?)
90 ON PULSING SW WINDS.  AS FOR PCPN...DONT EXPECT MUCH TODAY.
HAVE LEFT ISOLD MENTION IN LEVY COUNTY WHICH REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO ACTIVE CONVECTION TO WARRANT A MENTION...AND IN A STRIPE DOWN THE
CENTER OF THE STATE OWING TO POSSIBLE WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH SSE FLOW
OVER E CENTRAL FL.

TONIGHT...THOUGH MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE BACKING OFF
SOMEWHAT ON VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INVOLVED WITH
EXPECTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ITS A BIT TOO SOON TO LET DOWN
OUR GUARD.  ENTIRE PENINSULA WILL BE IN RR QUAD OF IMPRESSIVE (135+
KT) 250 MB JET WITH A DECENT AREA OF DIVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF IT.
SECOND...TIMING IS OPTIMAL (03Z-09Z) WHEN POTENTIAL SOUTHERLY INFLOW
CAN ENHANCE THE LINE.  FINALLY...TRUE FRONTS ACTING ON ENTRENCHED
LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN.

WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN THE
HAZ WX OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS LED BY INCREASING
FLOW (TO OVER 50 KT) ABOVE 850 MB FEEDING INTO THE LINE.  THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE N OF TAMPA BAY...FADING TOWARD SW FLORIDA WHICH
WILL BE FARTHEST FROM THE BEST WIND FIELDS AND LATEST (12Z OR SO) TO
RECEIVE THE LINE.

MONDAY...WHATS LEFT OF THE LINE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE SE BEFORE
MID MORNING.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER
MID MORNING TO MID AFTN AS 850-500 MB TROUGH SWINGS BY.  THE NOW-
WARMED EASTERN GULF (70) WILL HELP PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
STRATUS/STRATOCU BEHIND THE FRONT...PERHAPS INTO MID OR LATE AFTN
AND HANGING ON IN THE GULF THROUGH EVENING.  SKIES WILL CLEAR FIRST
N AND CENTRAL INLAND...WITH A MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET
NEAR THE COAST AS RIDGING SURGES IN.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
TUESDAY WILL BE DAY 1 OF CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT NW WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND PLEASANT TEMPS
JUST A HAIR BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS THROUGH THE
MID-WESTERN STATES. THE ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
THURS AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY...EXITING THE STATE
BY EARLY SAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS BACK TO THIS TIMING AS THE
DGEX HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A FRIDAY FROPA AND THE GFS HAS FLIPPED
BACK TO THIS TIMING FROM YESTERDAYS SLOWER SOLN. KEPT POPS AT 40%
FOR FRI WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH THU NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT. TEMPS AND
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER S/SE FLOW...AND
THEN DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...S WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND PROBABLY REACH
CAUTION CRITERIA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTN. WILL HOIST THIS
MORNING.  WITH MOON JUST PAST FULL AND APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT
TIDES TO RUN 1 TO PERHAPS 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING.  WILL
NOT MENTION JUST YET HOWEVER. EXPECT SCA CONDS TOWARD OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK MON AS 25-35 KT WINDS THROUGH 850 MB TRANSLATE DOWN.
HIGH SURF MAY BECOME AN ISSUE MON...AND WILL HEADLINE IN SURF ZONE
FCST THIS MORNING AS AN OUTLOOK.  BY MON NIGHT/TUE...CONDITIONS
QUICKLY QUIET DOWN...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS TODAY OR MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
DISPERSION WILL BE IN THE VERY GOOD RANGE EACH DAY AS MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE IN THE MIXED LAYER.  DWPTS WILL DROP OFF
MARKEDLY MONDAY AFTN BUT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 70 IN MANY OF
THE SAME AREAS...KEEPING HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITERIA.  NOT THE
SAME FOR TUE/WED AS TEMPS RECOVER QUICKLY WHILE DWPTS REMAIN LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 67 70 55 / 00 70 40 00
FMY 87 72 76 54 / 00 40 60 00
GIF 87 68 74 53 / 20 70 40 00
SRQ 83 68 70 55 / 00 70 40 00
BKV 85 64 71 46 / 00 70 20 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER
 OUT 60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
424 AM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048-261600-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER-
424 AM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FLORIDAS NATURE COAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 10
AM...CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND
EAST AWAY FROM THE NATURE COAST.  SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL OF PENNY SIZE OR
GREATER AND STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS.  THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER NORTH ONE
TRAVELS.  RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE READY TO
TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

...MORE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY.
CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL AFFECT THE NATURE COAST FROM
MIDNIGHT INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.  CURRENT DATA
SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WIND
DAMAGE...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDY...COOLER...AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATER
MONDAY.  FOR MARINE INTERESTS...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 8
FEET AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FLZ049>052-055>057-261513-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
424 AM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 10
AM...CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND
EAST AWAY FROM WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL OF PENNY SIZE OR
GREATER AND STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS. RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN
EYE TO THE SKY AND BE READY TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION SHOULD WARNINGS
BE ISSUED.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING KILLS  STRONGER CELLS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR
THUNDER...SEEK SAFETY...PREFERABLY INDOORS...IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

...MORE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE D
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY.  CURRENT DATA
SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THIS LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE...BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDY...COOLER...AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATER
MONDAY.  FOR MARINE INTERESTS...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD AS HIGH AS 8
FEET AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FLZ060>062-065-261513-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-LEE-SARASOTA-
424 AM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...AND A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING KILLS  STRONGER CELLS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR
THUNDER...SEEK SAFETY...PREFERABLY INDOORS...IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY.  CURRENT DATA
SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS LINE WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

BREEZY...AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATER MONDAY.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 6 FEET OR HIGHER
LATE MONDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS BEFORE
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
749 AM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

FLZ039-261330-
LEVY-
749 AM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 30
MPH...WILL AFFECT FOWLER BLUFF AND CHIEFLAND...UNTIL 830 AM EST.
GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RD