Damaging Wind in Florida, March 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TORNADO WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 PM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST (9 PM CST) FOR ENTIRE
CWA...

.SYNOPSIS...SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN THEME OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGE WINDS & ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ISOLATED OVER THE CWA
WITH QUITE MOIST & UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. 12Z TAE SOUNDING
HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.23 INCHES...LI OF -7.7...CAPE OF 2047
J/KG. A VEERING PROFILE IN THE FIRES 10K FT...BUT NOT THAT STRONG.
EARLIER WARM FRONT OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS HAS LIFTED
NORTH & IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THETA-E GRADIENT
HAS SURGE INTO SE AL & SW GA...& ALONG COASTAL OF FL BIG BEND TO
PANHANDLE. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN BECOMING LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. DID SEE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG LAST NIGHT & THIS MORNING...& ONLY EXPECTING PATCHY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
MODELS SHOWED LIFT OVER THE CWA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTED N
TODAY...THEN A BIT OF A LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME OMEGA LIFT DOES
SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST FARTHER N OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL/GA. WILL BE KEEPING ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. THEN SUNDAY SEES THE UPPER LOW LIFT NE WITH THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE RISK FROM SPC LOOKS
GOOD WITH INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE STORMS...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS & ISOLATED TORNADOES. TIMING APPEARS COLD
FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH THE CWA AROUND 06Z MONDAY MORNING OR BY
12Z. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. LIKE GFS TIMING OF
FRONT & FEATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).
HIGH PRESSURE & DRY WEATHER SETS UP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE & COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
& TSTMS THURSDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. GFS HAS THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE LATER FRIDAY &
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS & SEAS ARE CURRENTLY REMAINING BELOW SCEC. WILL SEE A
GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT & SUNDAY MORNING TO SCEC AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES CLOSER. THEN POSSIBLE SCA AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH &
INTO MONDAY. LOWERING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AGAIN
INCREASING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POSSIBLE DRIER & WINDY CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS IN FLORIDA
TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WILL MONITOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  66 79 57 69/ 70 80 50 10
PANAMA CITY  67 74 56 68/ 70 80 30 05
DOTHAN       64 78 50 66/ 90 70 20 05
ALBANY       66 76 54 64/ 90 70 40 10
VALDOSTA     66 79 57 66/ 70 70 60 10
CROSS CITY   67 80 60 70/ 50 70 50 10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

MCT/BOINSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
530 AM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-262200-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ADEL...ALBANY...APALACHICOLA...
ASHBURN...BAINBRIDGE...BLAKELY...BLOUNTSTOWN...BONIFAY...CAIRO...
CALLAWAY...CAMILLA...CARRABELLE...CHIPLEY...COLQUITT...COTTONWOOD...
CRAWFORDVILLE...CROSS CITY...CUTHBERT...DALEVILLE...DAWSON...
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...DONALSONVILLE...DOWNTOWN DOTHAN...ELBA...
ENTERPRISE...FITZGERALD...FORT GAINES...FORT RUCKER...GENEVA...
GEORGETOWN...HEADLAND...LAKELAND...LEESBURG...MADISON...MARIANNA...
MAYO...MONTICELLO...MORGAN...MOULTRIE...NASHVILLE...NEWTON...
OCILLA...OZARK...PANAMA CITY...PANAMA CITY BEACH...PELHAM...PERRY...
PORT ST. JOE...PUTNEY...QUITMAN...SANTA ROSA BEACH...ST. MARKS...
STEINHATCHEE...SYLVESTER...TALLAHASSEE...THOMASVILLE...TIFTON...
VALDOSTA AND VERNON
530 AM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR EVEN A FEW TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A RIP CURRENT IS A
STRONG NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE BEACH THROUGH THE
SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

FOURNIER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
552 PM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             4 N VICTORIA            31.59N 85.93W
03/26/2005  1.75 INCH        COFFEE             AL   PUBLIC

            STATE HWY 167 - COUNTY ROAD 201 - HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF
            BALL SIZE BROKE WINDOW AT ONE ADDRESS AND AND PUT HOLE IN
            SIDE OF MOBLE HOME AT ANOTHER ADDRESS.

&&

LANIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
619 PM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

FLZ015>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>160-270300-
BAKER GA-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-CLAY GA-
COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-
FRANKLIN FL-GADSDEN FL-GRADY GA-IRWIN GA-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WORTH GA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADEL...ALBANY...APALACHICOLA...ASHBURN...
BAINBRIDGE...BLAKELY...CAIRO...CAMILLA...CARRABELLE...COLQUITT...
CRAWFORDVILLE...CROSS CITY...CUTHBERT...DAWSON...DONALSONVILLE...
FITZGERALD...FORT GAINES...GEORGETOWN...LEESBURG...MADISON...MAYO...
MONTICELLO...MORGAN...MOULTRIE...NASHVILLE...NEWTON...OCILLA...
PELHAM...PERRY...PUTNEY...QUITMAN...ST. MARKS...STEINHATCHEE...
SYLVESTER...TALLAHASSEE...THOMASVILLE...TIFTON AND VALDOSTA
619 PM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
IN GEORGIA...QUITMAN...CLAY...EARLY...MILLER...SEMINOLE...RANDOLPH...
CALHOUN...BAKER...DECATUR...TERRELL...DOUGHERTY...MITCHELL...GRADY...
LEE...WORTH...COLQUITT...THOMAS...TURNER...TIFT...COOK...BROOKS...BEN
HILL...IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER...AND LOWNDES.

IN FLORIDA...GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...
JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE...AND LAFAYETTE.

REMEMBER A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

10-BOLINSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
724 PM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

ALZ069-270108-
HOUSTON AL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTTONWOOD AND DOWNTOWN DOTHAN
724 PM EST SAT MAR 26 2005

AT 723 PM EST(623 PM CST)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN GENEVA COUNTY...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WHICH MAY
TOPPLE SMALL TREES AND BRANCHES...PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

10-BOLINSKI