Heavy Rain in Florida, July 8 to 9, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1110 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

.UPDATE...THE NHC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BONITA BEACH
IN LEE COUNTY TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONES AND COASTALS TO INCLUDE THIS HEADLINE. ALSO WILL ISSUE A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT (HLSTBW) FOR THE HURRICANE INFORMATION AND
A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSTBW) WITH PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION. HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ONLY FOR
THE PART WHERE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SUPERCEDES IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.DISCUSSION...LAST OF THE QUIET EVENINGS FOR A WHILE UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING WEST
ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WITH A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION.  MOISTURE HAS BECOME DEEP ENOUGH...WITH EVENING
TBW SOUNDING NOW INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST UNDER 1.8
INCHES...TO ALLOW A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP
ALONG COLLISION AS IT PUSHES WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE AS
IS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE BUOYS INDICATING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHILE
CLOSER TO SHORE WINDS WERE GENERALLY WESTERLY THANKS TO SEA BREEZE
IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.  WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS.  IN GENERAL CURRENT MARINE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE EVENING
FORECAST.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY TO LONGBOAT KEY
  IN MANATEE COUNTY.
 FLOOD WATCH 8 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY ALL ZONES.
 COASTAL FLOOD WATCH 8 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FROM LONGBOAT
  KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY TO SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY COUNTY.

&&

PRC
UPDATE...RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
358 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-080800-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
358 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR ONCE AGAIN TODAY. BY NOON...READINGS WILL
HAVE APPROACHED 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UPWARD INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM.

OVER MOST LOCATIONS...THE APPARENT OR FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURE
WILL BE BETWEEN 95 AND 100...EXCEPT BETWEEN 100 AND 105 NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...READINGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING AS COOLING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW...IF ANY.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND OR ABOVE 90 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND NEAR THE COAST.

DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...BEFORE YOU GET THIRSTY. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT
AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY
MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR AIR CONDITINED LOCATIONS IF
POSSIBLE.

DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN LOCKED VEHICLES  TEMPERATURES
CAN RISE ABOVE 130 DEGREES IN MINUTES...QUICKLY INCREASING THE
CHANCE FOR HEAT STROKE AND POSSIBLE DEATH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

...DENNIS MAY BE A MENACE TO SOME THIS WEEKEND...

HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBA TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF LATER FRIDAY. THE
CURRENT TRACK TAKES DENNIS THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.

THE TWO PRIMARY EFFECTS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
WILL BE MARINE HAZARDS AND POSSIBLE SMALL TORNADOES INLAND.

MARINE HAZARDS: THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF DENNIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE WAVES IN THE GULF TO AT LEAST 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
20 NM OUT...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
SQUALLS AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DENNIS WILL PRODUCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE BEYOND 20 NM SHOULD THE TRACK OF DENNIS EDGE A BIT CLOSER
TO THE SUNCOAST. AT THE COAST...THE INCREASING SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH HIGH SURF A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY BY SATURDAY. AS THE STORM MOVES NORTH...TIDES WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL...AND BEACH EROSION...OVERWASH...AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

LAND HAZARDS: CURRENT DATA SUGGEST DENNIS CENTER WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUING IN EARNEST SATURDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY. BANDS OF
SQUALLY WEATHER WILL EXTEND WELL EAST OF THE EYE...AND ADDITIONAL
CONVERGENCE MAY ENHANCE THESE BANDS INTO STRONGER STORMS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO WHEN THE BANDS PASS THROUGH.

THOUGH FOR MANY THE RAIN WILL ALLEVIATE THE RECENT HOT AND DRY
SPELL...MANY AREA RIVERS REMAIN HIGH AND SOME IN FLOOD.  ANY
STATIONARY OR REPEATING BANDS OVER RIVER BASINS IN OR NEAR FLOOD
COULD PUSH THE LEVELS BACK OVER FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES...AS WELL AS WATCHES
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THIS WEEKEND.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY BUT MAY BE NECESSARY
IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

BSG