Damaging Wind and Lightning Strike in Florida, July 29, 2005

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...KMLB 88D SHOWS WELL DEFINED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
PROGRESSING STEADILY INLAND ATTM. PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
NOTED ON VIS IMAGERY OVER THE WRN/CTRL PENINSULA...MOST NOTABLY
A LARGE RING OUTFLOW KICKED OUT EWD BY EARLY WSCB STORMS...AND
INVOF THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER FROM SANFORD NWD AROUND RIVER/LAKE
BREEZES. LATTER BDRY IS HEADED FOR IMMINENT COLLISION WITH THE ECSB
FROM VOLUSIA NWD WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

SINCE CONVECTION IS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAN THIS TIME THU...PLAN
TO KEEP SCT POPS OF THE CURRENT FCST...THOUGH WILL NUDGE LAKE CO
DOWN TO 30...AS IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE TIMING/LOCATION OF LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL FAVOR THEM OVER THE GREATER ORLANDO
AREA. WENT A BIT ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE MINS FOR TONIGHT AS IT HAS BEEN
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION AS SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING EAST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPS A TROPICAL FETCH.
ADVERTISED PCP WATER VALUES INVOF TWO INCHES PROJECTED EACH DAY. SSW
STORM LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY SLOW ECSB PROGRESSION
AND A LIKELY SHRA/TSRA MENTION WITH AREA UNDER FAVORABLE SIDE OF
UPPER LOW. SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW TO ONSHORE ON SUN WILL KEEP HIGHER
AFTERNOON PRECIP COVERAGE INLAND (WITHIN SCT CATEGORY) DUE TO EARLY
SEA BREEZE EVOLUTION. TUTT AXIS WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA ON SAT AND MERGE WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN. DUE TO PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE ANTICIPATE EARLIER
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON SAT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SHOWN MOVING INTO AREA FROM THE
EAST AS POS TILTED TROF MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS WWD FROM THE MARINE AREA. UPR CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF APCHG WAVE
WOULD ALSO ACT TO TEMPORARILY DRY THINGS OUT AROUND TUE. ON MON
EXPECT NEAR CLIMO POPS TRAILING OFF TO ISOLD ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THU...GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS UNDERNEATH RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 32N-34N. ECMWF OFFERS A
SIMILAR AND FASTER SOLN WITH WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS MON
NIGHT. IF SYSTEM CLOSES OFF BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD EXPECT A
SLOWER SCENARIO AS SUGGESTED BY GFS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS. S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
SHORE ERLY DIRECTION AND HIGHER SPEEDS IN AFTN DUE TO SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ON HIGH SIDE INTO
TOMORROW DUE TO INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH. MARINE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE LATE SAT AS TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF THE WATERS. WIND WAVES
3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TSRA WITH ISOLD G40KT OVER THE INTR THRU ABOUT 01Z
OR SO...THEN VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SPOTTY MVFR
MIST AND LOW SC/ST CIGS IN AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAIN TODAY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT THIS OCCURING NEAR TAF SITES TO INCLUDE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  89  75  90  /  20  60  40  40
MCO  76  90  76  92  /  30  60  40  50
MLB  76  88  76  89  /  20  60  40  40
VRB  75  89  75  89  /  20  60  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
292200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
LIGHTNING STORMS TO FORM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE TODAY THAN THE
PAST WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.  INTERACTION OF LAKE AND
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AFTER 1 PM. OTHER
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...BUT MOST WILL
FORM AFTER THE SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
PROPAGATES INLAND...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLIDES WITH THE
ATLANTIC BOUNDARY WEST OF ORLANDO. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS. THE MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
LAKE COUNTY.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AWAY MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. COUPLED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERATE HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO THE MORNING
AND EVENING HOURS IF POSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST EXERT YOURSELF DURING
THE MAXIMUM HEAT OF THE DAY...BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
WEAK...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS
CAN FORM IN SUCH WEAK FLOW REGIMES...USUALLY AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. WHILE
SUCH PHENOMENA ARE SHORT-LIVED...THEY FORM WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCED WARNING AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LOCAL DAMAGE.
RESIDENT LIVING ON OR NEAR THE COAST SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS LATE THIS
MORNING AND PUSHES INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO PRODUCE A GREATER THAN NORMAL
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. STORMS THIS WEEKEND LIKELY WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KISSIMMEE LAKE CHAIN.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...DAILY SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TYPICAL FOR MID SUMMER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

BRAGAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FLZ047-292015-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER PALM BAY...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH...MELBOURNE BEACH...WEST MELBOURNE AND
SUNTREE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FLZ047-292000-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

...STRONG STORM OVER CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY HAS WEAKENED...

AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE STRONG STORM NORTH MOVING THROUGH MELBOURNE HAS WEAKENED.
ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE NO LONGER LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FLZ047-292000-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

...STRONG STORM OVER CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY HAS WEAKENED...

AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE STRONG STORM MOVING NORTH THROUGH MELBOURNE HAS WEAKENED.
ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE NO LONGER LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
423 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FLZ041-141-292115-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
423 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER DE LEON
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
527 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FLZ144-292215-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
527 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...

AT 524 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER
CLERMONT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
556 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FLZ041-292245-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
556 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 554 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL OVER DE LAND...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.