Lightning Strike in Florida, July 23, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON - MON)...AFTERNOON WORKING OUT FAIRLY
MUCH AS EXPECTED...WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...MOVING STEADILY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
ORANGE/LAKE/MARION COUNTY AREA FOR NOW.  EXPECT THINGS TO SHIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH ACTIVITY HEADED FOR INTERIOR WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA (MAINLY POLK...HARDEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES).
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG...PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERNIGHT
AND SUNDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE AND 500 MB WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED SHEAR
AXIS SHOULD COMBINE TO CRANK UP THE EASTERN GULF MACHINE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM
THE SARASOTA/BRADENTON AREA NORTHWARD.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY OR SOON AFTER DAYBREAK AND FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL
ZONES.  NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE GFS INDICATE SOME OF THE SUBSIDENT
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD 500 MB RIDGE WILL SNEAK INTO NORTH
AND PERHAPS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.  GIVEN THIS...HAVE DECREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS OVER LEVY COUNTY FOR NOW...THOUGH THIS MAY NEED
TO BE SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE NOSE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH.

CONTINUED STEADY WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KICK MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT WITH
SOME HEATING.  FARTHER SOUTH...LIGHTER FLOW BUT INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ARGUES FOR NEAR CLIMO PCPN CHANCES.

HAVE CUT BACK ON PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRIPE OF HIGHEST
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD THE SOUTH.  THAT SAID...IT SHOULD
STRING OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS AND POINTS EAST...
SO HAVE KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE.  BY MONDAY...
THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN?  FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT LEVY DRIEST (IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM TRENDS) BUT
REMAINDER OF AREA IS IN A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE/COVERAGE RANGE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ON THEIR WAY TO 105 IN ALL BUT THE NORTH THIRD
TODAY.  RAINS ON SUNDAY SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO 100 OR LESS.  MONDAY AND BEYOND COULD GET STIFLING
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IF RIDGE DOES NOT MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FA THRU AT LEAST THU. SFC TROUGH WILL BE STALLED NORTH
OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH AS THE
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN BY NEXT SAT. ALOFT...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
IS REVERSED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WEAKENING AND ALLOWING A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
TO BUILD IN BY SAT. IF THE ABOVE FORECAST VERIFIES...THEN RAIN
CHANCES SHUD BE HIGHER BY WEEKS END. WILL BUMP POPS UP FRI AND SAT
CLOSER TO CLIMO. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO TREND DOWN...CLOSER TO CLIMO...AS
THICKNESSES WILL BE LOWER BECAUSE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE SCENARIOS GENERAL FEATURES. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH TS FRANKLIN. MODELS
STILL SPLIT ON EITHER TAKING FRANKLIN WELL OUT TO SEA OR KEEPING A
LEFTOVER VORTMAX EAST OF OR OVER THE FA BY MID WEEK. LATEST TPC
TRACK FOR FRANKLIN IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE BASING THE FORECAST ON THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES AND SEE
WHAT FRANKLIN ENDS UP DOING IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE AREAS OF MODERATE CHOP AND SEAS UP TO 3 FEET.
THEREAFTER...ITS BACK TO LIGHT WINDS/SLIGHT SEAS AS RIDGE SETTLES
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 89 78 90 / 30 60 30 40
FMY 77 91 76 91 / 20 50 30 50
GIF 77 91 76 92 / 20 60 30 40
SRQ 79 88 77 90 / 30 50 30 40
BKV 74 89 74 92 / 40 60 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231600-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
525 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SUMMERTIME MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TO AGAIN
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TO CAUSE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS...
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TO LESSEN THE
EFFECTS FROM THE HEAT...AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR
CONDITIONING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...BEFORE YOU GET THIRSTY. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY MORNING
OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR AIR CONDITIONED LOCATIONS IF POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1137 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FLZ043-048-231600-
HERNANDO-SUMTER-
1137 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH SUMTER AND EASTERN HERNANDO
COUNTY...

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH...WILL
AFFECT BUSHNELL...WEBSTER...AND RIDGE MANOR UNTIL NOON EDT.  THIS
INCLUDES STATE ROAD 50. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.  BRIEF
DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS STORM
BEFORE NOON.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FLZ039-232045-
LEVY-
345 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEVY COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT
CHIEFLAND...BRONSON...WILLISTON AND OTTER CREEK...UNTIL 445 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS
POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
END. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVER THE ROAD.

NP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
438 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FANNING SPRINGS         29.58N 82.93W
07/23/2005                   LEVY               FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 214. TREE DOWN ON PORCH.

&&

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