Hail in Florida, August 14, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BUILDS IN ACROSS FL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWFA RISING FROM 591 TO AROUND 594. THIS WILL PROVIDE WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND A DECREASE IN PWAT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA TO THE NE GULF WILL BUILD IN
AND SHIFT NORTHWARD...TO ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND REACH OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTH GULF WATERS. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN BETTER
WITH SURFACE FEATURES.

WILL TRIM AFTERNOON POPS DOWN THROUGH THE SCATTERED RANGE AND KEEP
ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WARM BY 1-3 DEGREES AND BE UNIFORM DAY TO DAY. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW/ FROM SOUTH TO NORTH / WILL BACK SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE TO
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS EASES TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT - SUN)...DRIER AIR MASS WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO LOWER THAN NORMAL POPS (POPS
30% AT BEST) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DESPITE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS NORTH AND WEST DURING FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME SO EXPECT A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH POPS
NEAR NORMAL (40-50% RANGE) WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION...THEN
NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS/HIGHER SEAS NEAR/IN
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE MARINE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE IN A SEA
BREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 93 77 92 / 20 40 20 30
FMY 76 94 76 94 / 20 40 20 30
GIF 76 95 76 95 / 20 40 20 30
SRQ 76 92 76 92 / 20 40 20 30
BKV 73 93 73 93 / 20 40 20 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RKR
LONG TERM....JCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141400-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL GENERALLY MOVE
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS BRIEFLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND CAUSING WATER TO COLLECT ON ROADS AND LOW LYING
AREAS...AND GUSTY WINDS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS POSING THE GREATEST
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
228 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

FLZ048>051-141930-
PINELLAS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-
228 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN CENTRAL
HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...PINELLAS AND SOUTHERN HERNANDO COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD...WILL AFFECT
LUTZ...TOWN N COUNTRY...WEST PARK...TEMPLE
TERRACE...MANGO...BRANDON...AND LAND O LAKES...UNTIL 330 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE STORM ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL.

TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING UNDER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ALONG MAJOR HIGHWAYS...ESPECIALLY INTERSTATE 75 AND 275.
SLOW DOWN...AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE OVER FLOODED
ROADS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

FLZ049-142000-
PASCO-
345 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

...FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE IN WESTERN PASCO COUNTY...

BETWEEN 330 AND 345 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS IN
NEW PORT RICHEY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM MOVING LITTLE.

FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY AFFECT...
  PORT RICHEY.
  JASMINE ESTATES.
  NEW PORT RICHEY.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2828 8283 2819 8276 2834 8263 2837 8274

88

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

FLZ052-056-057-142115-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-
409 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL POLK...NORTHERN HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHEASTERN HARDEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WILL AFFECT THE
MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING LAKE WALES...BARTOW...AVON PARK...CROOKED
LAKE PARK...WINTER HAVEN...AND FROSTPROOF...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. IF THESE STORMS APPROACH
YOUR AREA SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND WAIT
FOR THE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING UNDER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SLOW DOWN...AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE OVER FLOODED ROADS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

FLZ052-056-057-142115-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-
409 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL POLK...NORTHERN HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHEASTERN HARDEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WILL AFFECT THE
MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING LAKE WALES...BARTOW...AVON PARK...CROOKED
LAKE PARK...WINTER HAVEN...AND FROSTPROOF...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. IF THESE STORMS APPROACH
YOUR AREA SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND WAIT
FOR THE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING UNDER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SLOW DOWN...AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE OVER FLOODED ROADS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
503 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

FLZ056-057-061-142200-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
503 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN HIGHLANDS...EASTERN
HARDEE AND CENTRAL EASTERN DESOTO COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING AVON PARK...WEST OF LAKE
JOSEPHINE...AND ROAD 66 NEAR THE COUNTY LINE BETWEEN HIGHLANDS AND
AND HARDEE COUNTIES...UNTIL 600 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL....AND FUNNEL CLOUDS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING UNDER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SLOW DOWN AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE OVER
FLOODED ROADS.

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
545 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

FLZ057-142230-
HIGHLANDS-
545 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE POUNDING RURAL HIGHLANDS COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WILL AFFECT LAKE PLACID...ARCHBOLD AND VENUS...UNTIL 630
PM EDT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS
EXPECTED.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING HIGHWAY 98 FROM LORIDA EAST...STATE ROAD 70
SOUTH OF PLACID LAKES...AND HIGHWAY 27 SOUTH OF STATE ROAD 70...CAN
EXPECT INCLEMENT WEATHER THROUGH 630 PM.  THOSE PLANNING TRIPS MAY
WANT TO DELAY THEM UNTIL THE WEATHER IMPROVES.

BSG