Hail in Colorado, September 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
230 PM MDT WED SEP 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PLAINS AND SLOWLY BECOMING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CIN BEGINNING TO ERODE
ACROSS PLAINS...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.  WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE CIN EROSION AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES.  RADAR
INDICATING A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS ELBERT COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF ANY
SHORTWAVE TO PROVIDE DYNAMICS.  IN FACT...QG VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGS
SHOW FAIRLY STRONG DESCENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.  STILL...WILL KEEP
THE SCATTERED POPS GOING...GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION. SEVERE POTENTAL
ALSO APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS.  HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILE
BECOMING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.  APPEARS THAT BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE COULD BE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN ELBERT AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.  GPS
INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH. SO NOT EXPECTING PROBLEMS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ANY AND ALL
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT.  ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING.
MODELS BRING MOISTURE AROUND PERIFERY OF HIGH ACROSS MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY.  WHICH IS WHERE THETA-E AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINS ONCE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND GRADUALLY MOVE ONTO PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE
LACK OF ANY UPPER DYNAMICS...SO STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS PLAINS AND LOW POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAINLY INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ACROSS PLAINS...STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MORE WIND THAN RAIN. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW MINIMAL
CHANGE FROM TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 90 ACROSS PLAINS...
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE
GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...GRIDS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER PUSH EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY.  A PRETTY DECENT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST
AREA IS SOUTHWESTERLY...AND IT INCREASES IN SPEED BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.  THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY GRIDS SHOW NO UPWARD OR
DOWNWARD MOTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THERE IS A TAD OF WEAK DOWNWARD MOVING AIR PROGGED
SATURDAY.  THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A TROUGH IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  FOR
MOISTURE...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE OF BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 0.90 INCH
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.  IT DRIES OUT A BIT SATURDAY...BUT THERE STILL
IS SOME MOISTURE AROUND.  THERE IS A FAIR THETA-E AXIS STRETCHED
ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  ON SATURDAY THE AXIS IS
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH SOMEWHAT.  THE CAPE IS FAIR LATE
THURSDAY...BETTER OF FRIDAY...BUT MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  ON SATURDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE.  THE QPF IS PRETTY
SPARSE BOTH LATE THURSDAY AND LATE FRIDAY.  SATURDAY THERE IS NONE.
THE LAPSE RATES ON THE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP LATE
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.  FRIDAY ITS LESS SIGNIFICANT BUT STILL THERE
SOMEWHAT.  IN SPITE OF ALL THE MONSOON MOISTURE...THE POPS DONT
LOOK GREAT.  WILL KEEP SOME IN...BUT PRETTY LOW.  FOR TEMPERATURES
...ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS LOOK TO CONTINUE.  FRIDAY IS SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE AGAIN ON SATURDAY FOR HIGHS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS KEEP A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES...WITH OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALL FOUR DAYS.  THE MOISTURE COMES
AND GOES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ITS NEVER REALLY GREAT.  WILL
KEEP SOME LIMITED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE ALPINE AREAS.  THE
THICKNESS GRIDS SHOW A BIT OF COOLER AIR FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.   THERE IS A HINT OF SOME UPSLOPE GETTING IN
HERE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

&&

.NONE.

&&

D-L/RJK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1216 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2005

COZ030>051-081200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1216 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS...GRADUALLY
SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.