Hail in Colorado, May 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
745 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO UP THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS CWA. RUC AND 00Z
DENVER RAOB INDICATE RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. RADAR ECHOES CONFIRM THIS SO WENT AHEAD AND
MADE THUNDER PRIMARY WX TYPE...MAINLY IN THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE THE
FOG ADVISORY AS MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
VISBYS WILL BE HELD UP BY RAIN/THUNDER...BUT SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY
AS PRECIP MOVES OUT. ALSO INCLUDED SOME RISING TEMPS THROUGH 06Z AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR FROM SW KANSAS. WAVE SEEMS
TO BE MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN MODELS PREDICTING AND WILL LOOK OVER
00Z MODEL DATA AND FINE TUNE WHERE NEEDED.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
COLD BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS COVER ALL OF THE TRI-STATE REGION
TODAY WITH OVERCAST SKIES/AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AREA
INTO WESTERN COLORADO WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING OCCURRING OVER
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION WITH QPF AXIS FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH AND LACK RECENT WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION...NO
HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CHEYENNE WELLS TO GOODLAND TO MCCOOK WHERE WIDESPREAD 1.00 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ALONG THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER ALONG/NORTH OF THE PALMER AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AFTER 03Z. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW LEVEL WAA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL SUPPORT SOME
MENTION OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WILL CONTINUE DEFINITE WORDING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY ON
TUESDAY...WITH A TREND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 850-500
MB LAYER MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. WITH LACK OF INSOLATION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WILL TREND HIGHS LOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ZONES AND NEAR MAV ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS 500 MB COLD POOL APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAY
KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT
STABILITY PARAMETERS WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

FOR WEDNESDAY...500 MB PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS NORTH AND THE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST AREA DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT READY TO MEET MAV/MET MOS WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW BUT CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM PREVIOUS
THINKING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. KEPT WEDNESDAY
DRY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WITH ENOUGH HEATING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MAINLY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...

ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST/LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION AFTER 18Z
AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF SURFACE TROUGH
ON SUNDAY...PREFER THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING POPS OUT ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR FIRST TWO TIERS OF KS
COUNTIES.
.NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR DUNDY/HITCHCOCK.
.CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z ALL ZONES.

&&

JRM/MCGUIRE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-311627-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1030 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY LIMITING INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BETTER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. ONE OR
TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

FOR TONIGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO KIT
CARSON COLORADO. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAMMERS