Hail in Colorado, May 23, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE 18Z SURFACE CHART PLACES A TROUGH FROM
SOUTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM LIC NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN YUMA COUNTY. THE
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME -TSRA AT THE WESTERN END OF THIS
AXIS WEST OF LIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF COLORADO. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE BLOWING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S.

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST WILL FOCUS MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE FORCING AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND 1200 J/KG IN THE FAR WEST TO AROUND 2800 ACROSS
KANSAS/NEBRASKA COUNTIES. THE TROUGH AXIS MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT TO
THE EAST TONIGHT SO THIS SAME SCENARIO WILL EXIST AGAIN ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE MAV POPS OVER THE MET THROUGH
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT 50 PERCENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT AM NOT READY TO GO HIGHER AT THIS POINT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO NIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS CLOSE ON
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND BUT LEANING TOWARD THE
MAV FOR MIN TEMPERATURES AND THE MET FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

DAYS 4-7...FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE FLATTENS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BUT TOO FAR OUT TO COMMIT TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL
POPS. MAX TEMPERATURES WARM UP FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER/MID 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.
.NE...NONE.
.CO...NONE.

&&

FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1020 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1020 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE TRI STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT NEARS THE
AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF A
CULBERTSON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE...THEN DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

INITIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS OR LARGER...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MERGE INTO A
LINE AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TO SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DECREASED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A FRONT.  DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT).

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001-002-013-027-NEZ079-080-240400-
CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-KIT CARSON-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-
WALLACE-YUMA-
235 PM MDT (335 PM CDT) MON MAY 23 2005

...TORNADO WATCH #315 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT)...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH:

IN KANSAS: CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...SHERMAN AND WALLACE

IN NEBRASKA: DUNDY...HITCHCOCK

IN COLORADO: YUMA...KIT CARSON...CHEYENNE

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

FS