Hail in Colorado, June 24, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
333 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2005

.SHORT TERM...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK A BIT BETTER TODAY AS
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND STATIC STABILITY IS SET TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC COLD ADVECTION.  THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO A BIT HIGHER DUE TO THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING LEVELS
WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH.  CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY FOLLOW THE USUAL
PATTERN...GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BY LATE MORNING AND
THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY
CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS MUCH LIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.  TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT
COOLER AGAIN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOSS OF ORGANIZED
DOWNSLOPE.  ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THINGS
PRETTY WELL IN HAND AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE HAVING TO MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM...ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
AROUND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...WITH A WEAK
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVR COLORADO.  AN ELY SURGE THAT IS
PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRING A NICE
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWFA.  AS A RESULT THIS WILL
SET THE TABLE FOR AFTN AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS FM THE MESOETA SHOW CAPES AT 18Z RANGING FM
3000-4000 J/KG.  BY 21Z HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR ARE PROGGED TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AS A SLY SFC WIND
PATTERN DEVELOPS.  WITH A FVBL DENVER CYCLONE APPARENTLY SETTING UP
THIS MAY BE A BIT PREMATURE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF DENVER.  FOR THIS
REASON I WILL MAINTAIN THE SCATTERED POPS I INHERITED.  FURTHER EAST
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES...PW VALUES OFF THE SOUNDINGS
EXCEED 1.25 INCHES WITH THE FLOW AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK...SO HEAVY RAIN
WOULD AGAIN BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.  ON SUNDAY THE OVERALL PATTERN
AOA 700 MB CHANGES VERY LITTLE.  THE LOWER LEVELS HOWEVER ARE MUCH
DRIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  FCST CAPES MAY RANGE
FM 1000 J/KG ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR TO 2000 J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH DRIER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MSTR AVBL FOR AT LEAST
A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.  THIS AGAIN
LOOKS OKAY IN THE CURRENT GRIDS SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SUNDAY EITHER.
AS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE FCST WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU...NONE.

&&

ET/COOPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1105 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2005

COZ030>051-251200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1105 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD FURTHER EAST THEREAFTER.  A FEW STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ON THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS A BIT HIGHER ON THE PLAINS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAVE ALL INCREASED FROM WHAT WAS AVAILABLE ON THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
CREATE THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE STRONG AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE METRO AREAS AND EASTERN PLAINS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRY SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY SEVERE
WEATHER ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

D-L/DBB