Damaging Wind in Colorado, July 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
228 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CAPE OF OVER 1000J WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FEED ON PRODUCED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MTN THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 45 MPH A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE FOUR CORNERS AS OUTFLOWS ROLL DOWNHILL. HAVE INCREASE POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA.

SATELLITE AND NAM SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE TRAVELING NORTH FROM AZ
WILL STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. EVEN GFS
KEEPS THE MOISTURE BELOW 600 MB OUT OF THE AREA. BELEIVE GFS IS
PROJECTING TOO HIGH A PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM FRI AND SAT...THOUGH
NAM MAY BE A BIT LOW. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM BUT NOT
AS DRY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS THAN EARLIER PACKAGE FOR FRI THRU
SAT. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
AS HIGH...HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL AND KEPT DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
MODEL OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL
MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WHILE NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE WARM AND MUGGY.

SOME DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A FEW DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION GOING IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

&&

CJC/BA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2005

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-221200-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WIND GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING NEAR RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
PEOPLE DOING ANY ACTIVITIES OUTDOORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY HOT
AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS BELOW 7000 FEET WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME STORMS WILL BE DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.