Tornado in California, February 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PST SAT FEB 26 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AREAS OF CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM...SUNSHINE HAS BEEN IN SHORT SUPPLY TODAY WITH A DEEP
MOIST LAYER IN PLACE W OF THE MTNS. ACCORDING TO PIREPS...TOPS ARE
NOW NEAR 6K FT. KSOX DOPPLER RADAR HAS LIMITED POWER AND MAY NOT BE
SHOWING ALL THE LIGHT SHOWERS IT USUALLY WOULD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SHOWERS COULD BE DEVELOPING FROM THE SAN
BERNARDINO MTNS...SE INTO THE DESERTS...OTHERWISE NO RAIN INDICATED
IN ALERT GAGES.

MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE MESO
SCALE MODELS THIS RIDGING DOES LOWER THE MARINE LAYER A BIT SUN AND
MON BUT DOES LITTLE TO DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SO LOTS OF CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN SUN IF
SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR FOR A TIME. LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE
OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IS LIKELY UNTIL WED...BECAUSE A LARGE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH N CA MON...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SYSTEM TUE.
EXPECT LIMITED SUNSHINE W OF THE MTNS UNTIL THESE SYSTEMS PASS. A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SUN AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS.

ALL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR MON AND TUE...
DESPITE THE DEEP MOIST LAYER. WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
MON IN NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE CONVECTION WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS.

LAKE HODGES CONTINUES TO SPILL AND A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SAN DIEGUITO RIVER BELOW THE DAM.

.LONG TERM...WE HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT FROM MOST MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE OVER SOCAL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LONG OVERDUE NEAR
PERFECT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SAN DIEGUITO RIVER BELOW HODGES DAM...SEE
LAXFLSSGX.

&&

JAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PST SAT FEB 26 2005

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-271400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
400 AM PST SAT FEB 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THE SAN DIEGUITO RIVER BELOW
HODGES DAM...

A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN DIEGUITO RIVER BELOW
LAKE HODGES UNTIL THE RATE OF SPILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES...AND IS
COMPLETELY CONTAINED WITHIN THE RIVER CHANNEL. PEOPLE IN THE FLOOD
PLAIN OF THE LOWER SAN DIEGUITO RIVER SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
WATER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF WATER LEVEL
RISE. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED AREAS OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT REQUESTED.

MM