Heat in California, August 5 to 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
844 AM PDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARDS MOJAVE AND TEHACHAPI.
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THUNDER IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE BORON AND INYOKERN THIS MORNING.
LOCAL SOUNDING IN DESERT ROCK SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH -5 LI
AND TOTALS INDEX OF 52.  CONCERN ABOUT FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST FLOW SHOULD ADVECT THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
TULARE MOUNTAINS. EDWARDS SOUNDING SHOW VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
STORMS MAY MOVE SLOWLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.  THUS WILL MAY POST A FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KERN
COUNTY DESERT...TEHACHAPI AND TULARE MOUNTAINS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING IN
MONSOON MOISTURE TODAY...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST
NAM SHOWS EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SE AZ AND SONORA MOVES
NW...AND WHILE WEAKENING THE IMPULSE IT BRINGS IN AMPLE 850-700 MB
MOISTURE. COMBINED WITH LI/S OF -2 TO -3 AND CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG IN
THE MTNS AND DESERTS SCATTERED TSTMS WILL FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NO CHANGE SEEN IN MODEL
CONVECTIVE FIELDS FOR SAT OR SUN SO RAISED SUN POPS FROM PREV FCST.
TEMPS WILL CONT ON THE HOT SIDE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH H5
HEIGHTS REMAINING ABOVE 591 DM. FCST PROB NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUATION OF NORTHERLY INFLUX
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ACTUALLY...THE CANADIAN GLOBAL BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE INTO SRN CA SUN NIGHT THEN TRACKS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE OWENS
VALLEY MONDAY AND FINALLY INTO SRN IDAHO BY 00Z WED. WHATEVER THE
CASE...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THRU TUE
WITH ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS OVER THE SRN SIERNEV AS WELL AS THE KERN
CO MTNS AND DESERT. BEYOND DAY 5...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER
DRYING TREND BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING THAT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FINALLY GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE SIERNEV. BUT THERE IS
CONCERN THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG AROUND FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD ALSO PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMP FCSTS (I.E. CURB MAX TEMPS
AND RAISE MIN TEMPS). BUT ALL IN ALL...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z SATURDAY. REFER TO TAFS AT KMCE...KFAT...AND KBFL FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH (SEE
SFOFFAHNX).

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

MV/BINGHAM/DURFEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
930 AM PDT FRI AUG 5 2005

CAZ095-097>099-060000-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
930 AM PDT FRI AUG 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
TONIGHT AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO AWIPS PRODUCT /SFOFFAHNX/ OR
WMO HEADER /WGUS66 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY. WEATHER SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THEIR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ089>094-096-060000-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
930 AM PDT FRI AUG 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM
YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

MAB