Flooding in Ohio, August 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
306 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (TDA THRU SUN NGT)...
CDFNT CONTG TO MOV SE ACRS NRN OH ERLY THIS AM.  APPRS FNT NOW
STRETCHES FM JUST N OF KERI TO NR THE ISLAND AND THEN ACRS NWRN OH.
BDNRY SHOULD MAKE IT S OF FA LATER THIS AM.  HAVE SEEN AN INCR IS
PRECIP COVERAGE SINCE MID BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OVR THE SRN
1/2 OF AREA AND IS SCT IN COVERAGE AT BEST.  SO WL CONT WITH CHC
WORDG FOR A FEW HRS THIS AM NRN 1/2 WITH SCT WORDG SRN AREAS.
DEBATED ABOUT MENTIONING T.  CONTG TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE IT BASICALLY TO THE S OF US 30.  NOT
QUITE SURE HOW FAST CLOUDS WL LEAVE BUT DO THINK IT WL BE A TAD
FASTER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY RAPID
DRYING IN LLVLS BY ERLY AFT BUT MOS GUID HANGS ON TO CLOUDS THRU END
OF DAY.  850 MB TEMPS FCST TO DROP TO 14 DEG BY 00Z GIVING ARND A 10
DEG DIFF WITH THE LAKE.  BUT GIVEN LACK OF MOIST IN LLVLS THIS AFT
THINK THERE WL ONLY BE SUM HIGH CLOUDS ACRS MOST OF AREA BY 18Z.
FAR SERN ZNS WL OBVIOUSLY BE LAST TO CLR AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE CIGS THRU 21 OR 22Z AT KCAK.  WITH SUM SUN MOST AREAS SHOULD
GET INTO LOW 80S THIS AFT.

AFTER THIS AFT...DRY AND PLEASANT WX EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.  SFC HI SCOOTS OFF TO THE NE ON SUN AND WL START
TO SEE RETURN FLOW LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WL PROB TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S MUCH OF THE AREA AND WL MAKE CHG TO GRIDS.  TEMP GUID OTHR
PDS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MON THRU THU)...
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BY BEGINNING OF WORK WEEK BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.  DGEX JUST A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  GFSLR WITH THE RIDGE A
LITTLE WEAKER SETS UP RETURN FLO TUES WITH SOME PRECIP.  LOOKS
OVERDONE BUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT LAST 2 DAYS SO THINK WARRANTS AT
LEAST A 30 POP FOR NOW.

RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES THURSDAY.  GFS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE SYS
SO FOR NOW KEPT NEXT THURSDAY DAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURS TRENDED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
CDFNT JUST INTO NW OH AND LAKE ERIE AND MOVING SLOWLY SE. MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AM...WITH OCNLY MVFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTH AFTER FROPA. WITH DEW POINTS DECREASING FROM THE NORTH NOT
MUCH FOG IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA