Tornado in Arkansas, November 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
430 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY...
...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...
...SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR ARKANSAS TODAY. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED
JUST NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE BLOWING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LEFT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE DAWN. A VIGOROUS CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR
SEASON INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND THE FRONT APPROACHES. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH A MAJOR SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SOME TORNADOES. WITH STRONG
WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL SECTIONS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH READINGS FALLING FROM THE 60S TO THE 40S OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE DAY. RAINFALL SHOULD END FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW OVER ABOUT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A CHILLY DAY WILL BE ON
TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT FREEZING OR BELOW FOR ALL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BIG RIDGE IN THE WEST AND MEAN TROF IN
THE EAST WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW SWINGING THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. EACH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE A LITTLE
MOISTURE WITH IT BUT THE GULF NEVER OPENS UP SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE SHORT WAVES AND NO
MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF RAIN. EACH SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SO THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS RATHER
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND
MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  35  52  30 /  80  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       63  29  45  22 /  80  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  35  52  29 /  80  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  36  53  30 /  80  30  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  30  45  23 /  80  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     79  38  54  31 /  80  40  10   0
SEARCY AR         69  34  50  28 /  80  20   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      71  35  52  29 /  80  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  33  50  27 /  80  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-ARZ006-
ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ023-
ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-ARZ038-
ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-
ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-
ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...22 / LONG TERM....29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
100 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SERIOUS SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

AT 1 PM...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ASH FLAT TO HOT
SPRINGS AND TEXARKANA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MARCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE
IS VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR...OR WINDS CHANGING DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT.
THIS STRONG WIND SHEAR...IN COMBINATION WITH WARM MOIST AIR OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS... WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE COLD FRONT
EXITS THE STATE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING
TOWARDS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONG
WINDS...WILL COMBINE FOR WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 40S IN OTHER AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING TONIGHT. MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AND MOST OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE 30S.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ENTIRE AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A FREEZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MANY AREAS WILL HAVE A HARD FREEZE. THIS
ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND WILL RESULT IN KILLING FROST IN ALL
AREAS. FROST IS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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