Hail in Arkansas, June 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
948 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

.NOW TERM...LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INVADE FROM THE EAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
PRIMARLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF MY FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.(38)
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT...
402 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI PUSHING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THIS MORNING. THEN WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND CLOSENESS
OF THE LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE WEST. WITH CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS...HAZY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE PRESENT TODAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING
AS UPPER LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH ON TUESDAY TO INCLUDE SMALL POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER 90S IN PARTS OF THE WEST OF THE
SOUTH. COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONT GETS
CLOSER.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO REACH AT LEAST INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
NORTH THEN LIFT BACK NORTH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. KEPT 30 POPS
IN THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE POSSIBLE PRESENCE
OF A FRONT IN THAT AREA WITH 20 POPS ELSEWHERE. GFS HINTS AT A
POSSIBLE MCS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
DETAILS ON THIS ARE SKETCHY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT DID ENHANCE POPS TO
40 PERCENT IN THE NORTH DURING THAT PERIOD. LOWERED POPS LATER
SATURDAY TO 30 NORTHEAST TO 20 ELSEWHERE THEN SLOWLY TAPERED POPS
OFF THROUGH SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMP FORECASTS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REFLECTING ON A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
NORTH...BUT THE HOT SUMMER TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK BY SUNDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  71  95  72 /  30  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       94  68  93  70 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  95  73 /  30  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  93  69  93  70 /  20  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     92  73  95  73 /  30  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         92  71  96  72 /  30  30  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      94  70  95  71 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  70  95  70 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...22 / LONG TERM...29 / NOW TERM....38.