Damaging Wind in Arkansas, July 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LOCAL RADARS CURRENTLY INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR MALVERN...TO JUST
NORTH OF ENGLAND MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY..AND SHOULD BRING
SOME DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS HOT AND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...TROPICS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH CINDY
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING SHORT TERM...WITH
DENNIS SOON TO FOLLOW. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT DENNIS WILL
APPROACH GULF COAST BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. TRACK VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT
ADDED MORE CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF DENNIS WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  92  70  93 /  30  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       66  89  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  93  71  94 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  92  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  88  66  90 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  91  71  92 /  30  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         69  91  69  90 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      70  92  72  93 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  92  70  91 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
230 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SYSTEM ALOFT THAT FORMED FROM WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA
WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER NEW SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS MAINLY
EAST OF DANVILLE...MALVERN AND HAMPTON...AND SOUTH OF MORRILTON AND
AUGUSTA.

A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. ONCE INLAND...IT APPEARS THAT THE REMNANTS OF
CINDY WILL REMAIN EAST OF ARKANSAS...AND WILL BRING THE REGION NO
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UNDER THE
HIGH...SINKING AIR WILL PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING...WITH
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

A NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GULF COAST TOWARD MONDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL GO...BUT
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE IMPACTS IN ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANY
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINING ISOLATED.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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