Flash Flood in Arkansas, July 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MAIN SURFACE TROUGH THAT/S BEEN MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER THE
AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS MOVED UP INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG SEVERAL MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES AND INVOF H5 TROUGH. CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IN THE
SOUTH...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NEAR
AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. WITH STRONG UPR RIDGING OVER THE SERN
CONUS...UPPER LOW SHOWN ON 12Z ANALYSIS INVOF THE BIG BEND AREA OF
WEST TEXAS WILL RIDE THE MEAN FLOW NORTHEASTWARE TONIGHT...AFFECTING
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM IN PLACE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...ACTIVITY DURING
THE NIGHT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-DAY SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND HEATING OF THE DAY KICKS IN. COVERAGE
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A BLOCKING HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST REGION BEHIND HURRICANE EMILY. FRONT WILL HIT THE
HIGH...AND THEN LIKELY STALL OR WASH OUT INVOF SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
DOUBTFUL EVEN IF THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THAT FAR. AS SUCH...MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE THAT/S BEEN PRESENT WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE NORTH
AND THE SOUTH. AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING MORE TO AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SUMMERTIME CONVECTION PATTERN FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PRETTY
MUCH CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  89  74  92 /  50  50  50  30
HARRISON AR       68  88  72  87 /  30  40  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  90  76  93 /  50  50  50  30
PINE BLUFF AR     72  90  74  92 /  50  60  60  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  87  72  87 /  30  40  40  30
MONTICELLO AR     73  91  74  93 /  50  60  60  30
SEARCY AR         72  89  73  91 /  50  50  50  30
MOUNT IDA AR      72  90  77  93 /  50  50  50  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  89  74  91 /  40  50  50  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...
AND PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...AND PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...AND MOISTURE
VALUES WILL DECREASE. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DECREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

51