Damaging Wind in Arkansas, January 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS EARLY
THURSDAY. AN OLD ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT A SQUALL
LINE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MARCH EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. FIGURE ON LINE REACHING WESTERN AREAS AROUND
02Z OR 03Z...PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA AROUND
06Z THEN MOVING OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10Z. THIS COULD EASILY
FLUCTUATE AND HOUR OR TWO BUT WILL GO WITH THAT TREND. WENT WITH 100
PERCENT POPS FOR THE TIME PERIOD I EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOWER POPS BEFORE AND AFTER. MENTIONED HEAVY
RAIN AND SEVERE IN THE GRIDS WHERE POPS WERE 80 PERCENT OR GREATER.
STILL LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY A WIND DAMAGE EVENT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL WHILE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. BY 12Z THURSDAY...EXPECT THE ROUGH
WEATHER TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN THE EASTERN HALF ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. CONTINUED
SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST. TEMP FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE TRICKY BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV MOS. TEMPS MAY CONTINUE
TO FALL A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING A SMALL RECOVERY
REACHING MAXES SHORTLY AFTER NOON THEN STARTING TO FALL OFF. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND A DRY AND COLD PERIOD WILL BEGIN
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING UNDER QUASI
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COLD AND DRY PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE SOME REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONTS
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ONE NEXT
WEDNESDAY. SOME MOISTURE IS PROGGED WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW. APPEARS
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW BASED ON FORECAST 1000-500
THICKNESS VALUES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    48  57  27  45 / 100  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       37  44  20  38 / 100  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  55  28  45 / 100  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     50  58  28  47 / 100  20   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  38  46  20  38 / 100  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     52  59  29  49 / 100  30   0   0
SEARCY AR         46  55  25  44 / 100  20   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      48  53  27  45 / 100  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  49  25  42 / 100  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL
400 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...
ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>047...ARZ052>057...
ARZ062>069.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
505 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
505 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS IT
APPROACHES ARKANSAS. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS ALL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THESE AND OTHER FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.

A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...IT WILL TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINS...AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

PERSONS ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE REMINDED TO MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TODAY CONCERNING THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE STATE AROUND SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY...AS COLDER AIR
SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH COLD WEATHER
WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND STATEWIDE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

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