Damaging Wind in Arkansas, February 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
COMPLEX PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE FORECAST IS A
CHALLENGING ONE AT THAT. OUTCOME WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS STILL CREEPING INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. BOUNDARY IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
PROGRESSING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HELPED OUT BY VORT
MAXES MOVING ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AR IN THE MEAN FLOW.

FRONT/S PROGRESSION OVER THE AREA WILL BE SLOW...WITH THE SYSTEM
LIKELY NOT MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEFORE SUNDOWN.
THUS...BUST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES COULD BE PRETTY HIGH IN
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. FRONT WILL HIT STRONG H5 RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
GULF...AND WILL STALL OUT BY TONIGHT...INVOF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
WOULD ACT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TODAY.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS IN THE MEAN FLOW...INTERACTING
WITH THE BOUNDARY. HEATING OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC
UPLIFTING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BY THEN...SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE DOWN INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. H5
RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...ALLOWING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF COAST. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY...BUT
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE.

MOS NUMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...VARIATIONS NOT ONLY IN CLOUD COVER...BUT THE POSITION OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD POSSIBLY WREAK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS
MORNING. OVERALL PATTERN OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND EASTERN CONUS
TROFFING STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
RESULTANT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AREA BASICALLY IN
BETWEEN THE VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND MORE BENIGN SOUTHERN
STREAM. WITH NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE MODELS...DECIDED
TO GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE PATTERN WILL
BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH KEEPING THE AREA IN A
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK. DRY AND COOL FORECAST EXPECTED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    73  47  64  45 /  20  10  20  30
HARRISON AR       63  41  59  36 /  30  10  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  47  66  45 /  10  10  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     75  47  66  45 /  20  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  41  59  35 /  40  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     77  49  67  48 /  20  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         69  46  63  42 /  30  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      76  47  67  44 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  44  63  41 /  20  10  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER 57 / LONG TERM FORECASTER 56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1245 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS BROKE UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND TEMPERATURES WARMED IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S.
MOISTURE LEVELS WERE RATHER LOW AT GROUND LEVEL...BUT MOISTURE
INCREASED AS EVENING APPROACHED. THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE
DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

THE STORMS WERE MOSTLY ALONG A COLD FRONT STRADDLING THE MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS BORDER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT...THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND LESS ORGANIZED...WITH LESSER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.

PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WATCH
OR WARNING IS ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE FRONT...WHEN INTERACTING WITH
SEVERAL SYSTEMS ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...AND IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATE TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO
ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY. THUS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY
RAINS...AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1210 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             OMAHA                   36.46N 93.19W
02/20/2005  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1020 PM     HAIL             ROSE BUD                35.33N 92.08W
02/20/2005  E1.00 INCH       WHITE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1023 PM     HAIL             ATKINS                  35.24N 92.95W
02/20/2005  E0.75 INCH       POPE               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

1035 PM     HAIL             2 N BENTON              34.60N 92.58W
02/20/2005  E1.75 INCH       SALINE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1050 PM     HAIL             SOLGOHACHIA             35.25N 92.68W
02/20/2005  E0.75 INCH       CONWAY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
217 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     HAIL             GUY                     35.32N 92.33W
02/20/2005  E0.88 INCH       FAULKNER           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

46