Hail in Arkansas, April 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
304 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

.SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES CONVECTION IS INITIATING ALONG A DRY LINE
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE CURRENTLY EXIHIBITING A
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.

CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE APPROACHES...THE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN.  FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A SQUALL LINE IS THE MOST LIKELY MODE OF
CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM....FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL RUN INTO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SLOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN STALL THE
FRONT OVER ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN ALL AREAS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. SHOULD THE MOVEMENT BE AS
SLOW AS THE GFS IS SHOWING...HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A POSSIBILITY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  70  49  66 /  70  40  30  20
HARRISON AR       55  62  45  62 /  70  40  40  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  68  48  67 /  60  40  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     59  72  49  68 /  70  40  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  64  45  62 /  70  50  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     60  73  50  69 /  60  30  30  30
SEARCY AR         58  69  48  65 /  70  40  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      58  67  48  67 /  60  40  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  65  47  65 /  60  40  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM....51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
440 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061100-
INDEPENDENCE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-IZARD-NEWTON-SEARCY-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-
JEFFERSON-STONE-HOT SPRING-GRANT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-GARLAND-CLEVELAND-
DALLAS-CALHOUN-OUACHITA-DESHA-LINCOLN-LOGAN-BRADLEY-SALINE-BAXTER-
MARION-SHARP-FULTON-BOONE-MONTGOMERY-POLK-JACKSON-CLEBURNE-
VAN BUREN-POPE-PIKE-PULASKI-MONROE-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-DREW-ARKANSAS-
CLARK-JOHNSON-
440 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A LOT OF WIND ENERGY AND SOME
TURNING OF THE WIND WITH HEIGHT...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HARRISON...TO RUSSELLVILLE TO
HOT SPRINGS AND ARKADELPHIA. THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH
OF ARKANSAS. THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD...AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL
MAKE IT EASIER FOR HAIL TO FORM IN DEVELOPING STORMS. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS EVENING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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