High Wind in Alaska, February 19, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT FEB 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...HEMISPHERIC...

4 WAVE PATTERN WITH ANCHOR LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. ONE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN AOR WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EAST.

...AT THE SURFACE...
MAIN FEATURE AT THE SURFACE ARE THE TWO LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE NORTHERN ONE IS AROUND 974 MB
WHILE THE SOUTHERN ONE IS AROUND 969 MB. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 45 MPH IN MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS. SPOKES OF
MOISTURE FROM THE LOWS KEEP HITTING THE COAST ESPECIALLY NEAR BETHEL
AND WEST OF SAND POINT.

OVER TO THE EAST, PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH. WSR88D AND SATELLITE BOTH NICELY SHOW THE LINE OF
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

...FOR THE FORECAST...

ALL FOUR SOLUTIONS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE
LOWS OUT TO THE WEST. GFS IS PREFERRED AS IT IS THE DEEPEST OF THE
BUNCH AND CLOSEST TO THE ACTUAL PRESSURE VALUES. ALL FOUR HAVE THE
NORTHERN LOW DISSIPATING EARLY TODAY WHILE THE OTHER ONE MOVE UP JUST
WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 925 MB WINDS HAVE THEIR
HIGHEST VALUES JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS
CORE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST SO THE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.

OVER IN THE EAST THINGS ARE A BIT MURKIER. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
GOING WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY. CAUTION NEEDS TO
BE USED AS BOTH THE RADAR, IR, AND WV ALL SHOW THE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE MODEL LOCATIONS. ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST THAT WILL TRIGGER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DOES
INDICATE SOME TYPE OF A FEATURE MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE IT
ALSO SHOWS THAT IT IS STALLING APART AND TRANSFERRING MORE ENERGY TO
THE NORTH. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING ECHOS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AHEAD
OF IT SUGGESTING THE FEATURE IS MOISTURE STARVED AND LOOSING STEAM.

...FURTHER OUT...

NO MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT PATTERN EXCEPT A TREND TOWARD WEAKER
LOWS WHICH WOULD MEAN LIGHTER WINDS OUT WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181 AND 185.
MARINE...STORMS 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 12A1 13B 14
         GALES 5A 5B 12B 13A 15
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

BELL FEB 05