Hail in Alabama, March 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
425 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

.SYNOPSIS...TODAYS WEATHER MAPS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WHILE LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH MODERATED TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ADVECTING IN
FROM THE GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN LEVEL OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BALANCES WEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST BASED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF UPPER SHORT
WAVE. THE RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO LIKELY AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ADVANCES NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODERATE CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND HELICITY VALUES
AROUND 200 M2/S2 IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE. THE EXACT
THREAT AREA WILL BE FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT WILL
INCLUDE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AS CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO THE COOLER ETA HANGING ON TO THE WARP
AROUND CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CONUS. ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.MARINE...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN BETWEEN A HIGH INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SETTLES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT BETWEEN PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS AND JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST INTO THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. SOME OF THESE POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING A MARINE HAZARD
ESPECIALLY TO SMALL MARINE VESSELS. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CLUSTERING
WITH REGARD TO WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS...SUGGESTING STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE FRIDAYS FRONT AND A BUILDING SEA STATE TO
AT OR ABOVE 7 FEET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LITTLE CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  76  66  76 /  50  70  70  70
PENSACOLA   68  75  67  77 /  40  50  60  70
DESTIN      67  74  67  75 /  40  50  60  70
EVERGREEN   64  76  64  77 /  50  70  70  70
WAYNESBORO  64  78  65  74 /  60  50  70  50
CAMDEN      64  76  64  77 /  60  60  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1115 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-311100-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
1115 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY
TONIGHT AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER TONIGHT COULD BE STRONG.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ORGANIZE...WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN HAS POSTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE NECESSARY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
724 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             BEAUMONT                31.17N 88.92W
03/30/2005  1.75 INCH        PERRY              MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

0707 PM     HAIL             RUNNELSTOWN             31.38N 89.11W
03/30/2005  1.75 INCH        PERRY              MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NEAR CORNITH CHURCH ROAD

&&

DAVEE