Hail in Alabama, July 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
515 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. RADAR DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ONE COUNTY
(CHOCTAW) IN THE FORECAST AREA NEAR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS
HURRICANE DENNIS REMAINS AT CATEGORY 4 STATUS NEAR CUBA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES IN THE
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS A JET MAX AND PW OF 2 INCHES IN JAN SOUNDING
LAST EVENING...BELIEVE LIKELY POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR EXTREME NW
ZONES. THICKNESS MINIMA INDICATE AN ATTENDANT COLD POOL AT 500...
WHICH IS MORE OR LESS OBSCURED BY THE ABUNDANCE OF -6C TEMPS...
EXCEPT FOR LIX WHICH IS -8 AND DIRECTLY UPWIND OF THE REGION IN
QUESTION. HENCE...THE DECISION FOR HIGHER POPS. THAT BEING SAID...IT
WOULD BE A NORMAL DAY OTHERWISE...UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS (CATEGORY FOUR) JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA.  OUR ENTIRE AREA REMAINS WITHIN THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE PROJECTED PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...WITH THE 4 AM CDT NHC FORECAST TRACK SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD. THIS TAKES THE CENTER OF DENNIS BACK TO NEAR PENSACOLA...
BUT STILL MAKING LANDFALL AROUND 7 PM SUNDAY. WE WOULD CONTINUE TO
CAUTION FOLKS TO NOT FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL PROJECTED PATH...BUT
RATHER ON THE FORECAST CONE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. PEOPLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINE SHOULD BE
MAKING THE EARLY PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS TRACK REMAINS
CLOSE TO SEVERAL MODEL FORECAST TRACKS. STRANGELY ENOUGH...THE NAM
MODEL AT 06Z IS NOW FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS.

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE LATEST NHC TRACK MAKING LANDFALL IN VICINITY OF
DESTIN SOMETIME SUNDAY...WILL KEEP WIND FOCUSED IN ACCORDANCE WITH
TCM OUTPUTS AND SEAS ADJUSTED USING THE BRETSCHNEIDER DIAGRAM. THE
GWW IS LOOKING WAY TOO LOW AT THIS POINT. WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS THE NEXT
ITEM TO LOOK AT. READERS ARE REMINDED THAT FORECAST TRACKS OF
TROPICAL SYSTEMS OF ANY TYPE OR INTENSITY CAN AND OFTEN DO CHANGE
WITH NEW DATA SETS...AND TO STAY TUNED.

&&

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS UNTIL WIND FROM DENNIS RAISES MIXING HEIGHT AND
DISPERSION. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITY COULD PLUMMET AFTER DENNIS HEADS
INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  73  92  75 /  30  10  30  50
PENSACOLA   93  75  91  77 /  20  10  40  60
DESTIN      92  78  89  77 /  20  10  50  60
EVERGREEN   93  71  92  73 /  30  10  40  50
WAYNESBORO  93  69  93  73 /  60  10  20  50
CAMDEN      97  71  93  72 /  30  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

22/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-080000-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
1120 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE LATEST OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST HAS THE CENTER
OF HURRICANE DENNIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE HURRICANE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  LARGE SWELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BASED ON THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...IN ADVANCE OF DENNIS...COULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS SATURDAY EVENING.  THE BEACHES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA COULD SEE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE AS EARLY AS 4 AM SUNDAY.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY HURRICANE DENNIS...AND RESULT IN EXCEPTIONAL RUNOFF AS THE
GROUNDS REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY.

IF THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT...EVACUATIONS MAY BE NEEDED
BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.  PRELIMINARY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY
AT THIS TIME...AND EMERGENCY ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE INITIATED.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEEING DENNIS MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.  CONDITIONS COULD
BE SIMILAR TO HURRICANE IVAN.

AS WITH ANY HURRICANE FORECAST TRACK...FUTURE CHANGES TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...TIMING...AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE DENNIS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ACTIVATION OF THE NWS STORM SPOTTER NETWORK MAY BECOME NECESSARY
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

GARMON