Flooding in Alabama, April 6 to 9, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
949 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST
PART. THE GRIDS MAY BE A TAD PESSIMISTIC IN THE OVERNIGHT SKY
DEPARTMENT...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE ZONES IS A GOOD SUMMARY
OF WHAT WE EXPECT.  NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THE ESF AND SPS
JUST ISSUED...REGARDING CONCERNS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOGGY SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR ANY TRAINING OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS SYSTEM SEEMS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AND THAT MAY HELP US OUT IN THE END.  STILL...WITH
THE SENSITIVITY TO HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO SPREAD
THE WORD TO KEEP OUR EYES ON THE WATER SITUATION.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

81/JD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
128 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-061230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
128 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT).

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE LOWER ALABAMA RIVER.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY).

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
ALABAMA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CITIES OF TUSCALOOSA...COLUMBIANA...
AND ALEXANDER CITY...SOUTH AND WEST.

THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS... AND THE TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT
MAY OCCUR...DEPENDS LARGELY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT IS THAT OF A SQUALL LINE...WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN OR AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...
WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH SOIL CONDITIONS ALREADY
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL RIVER
FLOODING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD LAST AS LATE AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY THREAT ON THURSDAY WOULD BE FOR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
932 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-060900-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
932 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

AN APPROACHING SPRING STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY.  IN
ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER (SEE BHMHWOBMX)...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING.  MANY LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN DRY THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...RIVER LEVELS REMAIN
HIGH ALONG THE ALABAMA...BLACK WARRIOR...CAHABA...COOSA...AND
TALLAPOOSA RIVERS.  MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THESE RIVERS HAVE JUST
RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE
ALABAMA RIVER IN SELMA REMAINS IN FLOOD.  ADDITIONALLY...SOIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN WET TO SATURATED.  IF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS DEVELOP OVER A GIVEN AREA...RUNOFF COULD EASILY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING IN THE SHORT TERM.  IF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD...IT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MAINSTREAM RIVER
FLOODING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG OR NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA SHOULD PLAN ON FOLLOWING THE LATEST WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

81/JD