Flooding in Wisconsin, March 26 to 31, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 AM CST FRI MAR 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERNS INCLUDE ONGOING
DENSE FOG OVER NC/NE WI...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS.

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVG THROUGH NE/EC WI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWED
MOST OF THE PRECIP EAST AND SOUTH OF GRB CWA...WITH ONLY ISOLD -SHRA
REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS STILL
OCCURRING OVER NC/NE WI...DUE TO ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND SNOW COVER. SATL/SFC OBS SHOWED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF
WI AND SE MN...WITH SOME BREAKS JUST STARTING TO OPEN UP OVER FAR NW WI.
VSBYS WERE ALSO IMPROVING OVER NW WI.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVSY THROUGH 9 AM...WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING WIND HELPING TO IMPROVE VSBYS THEREAFTER. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT
THIS TREND MAY BE SLOWED NEAR LK MICH AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO START ADVECTING BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE WHOLE CWA BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER CNTRL WI LATE IN THE DAY AS A S/W TROF
APPROACHES AND THE LLJ INCREASES.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A MILD START WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH A FEW LOW
60S PSBL IN CNTRL WI. MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT...RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT ON SAT...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH HAS YET TO BE RESOLVED.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN
WISCONSIN SOMETIME LATE INTO THE NIGHT. THE WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE NOT
THAT GREAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS WITH AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS LAPSE RATES RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 C/KM. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

THE MODELS KEEP US ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE TWO PERIODS. ALTHOUGH THE ETA MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AT 84 HOURS STILL PREFER
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS GIVEN THE
CURRENT FLOW REGIME. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION PRECIPITATION WILL END MONDAY
WITH A DRY REST OF THE EXTENDED AND A GRADUAL WARM UP IN CONTRAST TO THE
CUT OFF LOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES OF THE GFS MODEL. THE ONLY MAJOR
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS REMOVING PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND CANADIAN HELD OFF PRECIPITATION ANOTHER PERIOD WITH A DRY
THURSDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

KIECKBUSCH/KURIMSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CST FRI MAR 26 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-271200-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
600 AM CST FRI MAR 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL 9 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
A SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT. RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW...COMBINED WITH
PERIODIC RAINFALL...MAY CAUSE SOME RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE.
PERSONS LIVING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON WATER
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB