Flood in Wisconsin, June 15 to 30, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAST ZONAL PATTERN OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF U.S.  SHORT WAVE OVER WY/CO GENERATING LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KS...NOT WELL DEPICTED BY MODELS.  TROF LOCATED
OVER WESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA.  HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TODAY...PUSHING
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH.

MODEL PERFORMANCE NOT TO COMFORTING FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THUS
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. CANADIAN TROF TO SLIDE
EAST INTO UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...PULLING SURFACE COULD
FRONT INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING.  BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WI IN
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROXIMITY WARRANTS SMALL CHANCE POP OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES INTO WED AFTERNOON.  WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH PERIOD AS
MAIN FOCUS OF DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH OF CWA. SPC PLACES ALL CWA IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE TONIGHT.  INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT...BUT SHEAR FAIRLY
STRONG.

HAVE GONE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON SLOWER PROGRESSION OF BOUNDARY
THROUGH STATE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES AS A COOL WET PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT THIS RUN AS THE TIMING AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT MODELS
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THE GFS SOLUTION IS BY FAR
THE WETTEST SOLUTION WITH PRECIPITATION IN ALMOST EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED. THE ETA ON THE OTHER HAND IS THE DRIER SOLUTION WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFF PRECIPITATION THROUGH ITS RUN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE ETA IN HOLDING PRECIPITATION
AT BAY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THESE VAST DISCREPANCIES WILL LEAVE
MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE AND LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION
GIVEN THE WET PATTERN WE SEEM STUCK IN AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY REAL
CHANGE WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS AGREE ON
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA SO WILL PUT A CHANCE IN THAT PERIOD.

THE MEX GUIDENCE NUMBERS SEEM A BIT LOW EVEN WITH THE WET PATTERN GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR. WILL STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AS WE HAVE
NOT HAD MUCH OF A PROBLEM AT LEAST BREAKING 70 AS OF LATE. THE GFS
SOLUTION OF 540 DAM OF 1000-500 MB THICKNESS ON MONDAY SEEMS A BIT
EXTREME BUT WOULD MEAN WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES IF IT VERIFIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT NOT AS LOW AS
THE MEX MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/KURIMSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-161700-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM GREEN BAY TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB