Wildfire in Washington, August 2, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OREGON
923 PM PDT SUN AUG 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COMBINATION OF TWO
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM DESCHUTES COUNTY TO THE NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE HEAVY RAIN AND PEA
SIZE HAIL WERE REPORTED IN ENTERPRISE AND JOSEPH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IN CROOK DESCHUTES AND GRANT OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING WAS
REPORTED WITH BOTH DISTURBANCES...BUT ONLY ONE REPORT OF HEAVY RAIN
IN REDMOND AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE PASSED THROUGH. ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT TO KEEP NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON. MODELS DO
NOT SHOW ENOUGH DYNAMICS IN CENTRAL OREGON TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THERE AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL OCCURRING.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN CALIFORNIA WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SWING
NORTHEAST INTO OREGON MONDAY. A BROAD AREA OF DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF
IT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF EASTERN OREGON...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL HELP ENHANCE
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL OREGON...WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP STORMS
MOVE TO THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON ALONG THE CASCADES.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TUESDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY DUE TO AN INCREASING PUSH OF MARINE AIR OVER THE
CASCADES.   COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THIS IS AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER...MORE
COMMON IN THE SPRING OR FALL. YET...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH.
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED...MAINLY ON
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.  SMITH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PENDLETON (AIRPORT) 064 092 061 088 / 010 020 020 010
WALLA WALLA         068 093 063 088 / 010 020 020 010
TRI-CITIES          062 095 062 091 / 005 010 010 010
YAKIMA              060 092 059 088 / 005 010 010 010
HERMISTON           064 094 061 090 / 005 020 020 010
ELLENSBURG          060 089 060 084 / 005 010 010 010
REDMOND             052 089 050 085 / 030 030 020 010
LA GRANDE           052 090 053 086 / 020 020 030 020
JOHN DAY            055 092 054 087 / 020 020 030 020
THE DALLES          066 089 063 087 / 010 010 020 010
&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

96

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OREGON
235 PM PDT SUN AUG 1 2004

ORZ041>050-WAZ024>030-021200-
NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN (OR)-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (OR)-BLUE MOUNTAINS-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (WA)-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES-KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN (WA)-FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (WA)-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
235 PM PDT SUN AUG 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

UPDATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WORDING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON,
     BLUE MOUNTAINS, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS,
     GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPREAD UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.  MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED IN
THIS FLOW WILL HELP PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESSES.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING OVER CENTRAL OREGON.  STORMS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING OVER NORTHEAST OREGON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
          EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (WA), EAST SLOPES OF THE
          SOUTHERN CASCADES, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (WA),
          NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
          (OR), NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA
          BASIN (OR), FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (OR), BLUE
          MOUNTAINS, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS,
          GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA.  THIS
WAVE...UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  THE FOCUS OF THE THREAT WILL
BE IN NORTHEAST OREGON INCLUDING GRANT...UNION...WALLOWA...AND
SOUTHERN UMATILLA COUNTIES.  ENOUGH SHEAR...FORCING...AND MOISTURE
WILL EXIST FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO BE STRONG.  THESE
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND HAIL UP
TO 1/2 INCH.  THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP STORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OREGON TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO
AREAS ALONG THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AS WELL AS OVER THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
          EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, NORTHWEST BLUE
          MOUNTAINS, BLUE MOUNTAINS, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
          HIGHLANDS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY

STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA.  WESTERLY WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE CASCADES WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AFTER THE AM HOURS.
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE
THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON
ALONG THE OCHOCO AND BLUE MOUNTAINS INTO WALLOWA COUNTY.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PROTOTYPE GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PENDLETON/FORECAST/HWOGRAPHICS/HWOGRAPHICS.PHP

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE G IN
HWOGRAPHICS AND THE G IN HWOGRAPHICS.PHP.