Damaging Wind in Vermont, November 25, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
932 EST THU NOV 25 2004

.UPDATE...
THE GOING FCST WAS UPDATED BASICALLY TO MAKE IT MORE CURRENT.
THUNDER WAS ADDED TO SOME VT ZONES AND TEMPS WERE TWEAKED IN A FEW
SPOTS. SOME ENHANCED WORDING WAS ADDED TO THE SRN VT ZONES FOR ANY
+TSRA BY LATER TODAY.

SVR TSTM WATCH #907 IS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA THRU 2 PM EST.
HAD A LIL TROUBLE GETTING THE SLSVT OUT...BUT IT/S OUT. LATER...

MURRAY/GOFF

.PREV DISCUSSION...FROM 628 AM EST

.SHORT TERM...
MADE MINOR UPDATE TO ZONES TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
MORNING PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS.  SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN
OUT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED.

EVENSON

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 422 AM EST

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FRONT AND
IN THE 50S EAST OF THE FRONT.  PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXIT
VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK.  DRY SLOT IN
BETWEEN WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS A RESULT
AND COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SHARP UPPER FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER.  UPPER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND POINTS EAST.  STRONG OMEGA DEVELOPS ALONG THIS
UPPER FRONT...SO EXPECT A BURST OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THAT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER...BUT WITH ALL THE OTHER
ELEMENTS TO THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. IN ADDITION THIS
AFTERNOON...COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND
HELP CREATE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. GROUND
STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND DO NOT FEEL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT.  HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PICK UP
AN INCH.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MIXING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORIES.

BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.  THIS AREA AND THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SNOW OF SNOW BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.  STILL EXPECTING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS.  IN ADDITION...WITH THE TEMPERATURE GOING BELOW
FREEZING...SLICK ROADS MAY DEVELOP AND WITH IT STILL BEING A
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT THAT ALTHOUGH THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS BY THEMSELVES ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANT...COMBINING ALL OF THEM IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 30S.  BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
EXIST...SO WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL COME INTO PLAY...BUT REMAIN
ABOVE ANY CRITICAL LEVELS.  IT WILL JUST FEEL MUCH COLDER SIMPLY
FOR THE FACT THAT HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MOST
AREAS.

WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.  GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.  CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE
LOW.  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.  ISSUE WILL BE DIRECTION AS INDICATIONS
ARE NOW MORE OF A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
SHOWING A SOUTHEAST GRADIENT.  A SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WOULD CAUSE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TEND TO GET CHANNELED FROM THIS DIRECTION.  SO
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IS MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE
LOW/UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THESE PERIODS AS MAIN FOCUS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS IN THE SHORT TERM.

EVENSON

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
SCATTERED RAIN AND FOG ACROSS AREA THRU MIDDAY...WITH VSBY LWRED TO
4-5SM W/ OCNL IFR CONDITIONS BLW 3SM. COLDER AIR WILL MV INTO REGION
AFT 20Z FROM WEST TO EAST...CHANGING ANY PRECIP OVER TO -SW/-SN.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 20Z TO END OF FORECAST PERIOD FOR SNOWFALL
VSBY REDUCTION. WINDS ACROSS REGION FOR FORECAST PTS SOUTH 10 TO 20
KTS OVER KBTV AND KMPV...LIGHTENING TO LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
MORNING HRS AS LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF AREA..BECMG WNW AFT 00Z
AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25KTS. WSW
CONDITIONS AT KSLK 10 TO 20KTS SHIFTING TO THE WNW BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AT KMSS BECMG WNW DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25KTS.

NEILSON

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1013 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-251700-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-
EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-GRAND ISLE VT-LAMOILLE VT-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY-
WESTERN FRANKLIN VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...BETHEL...BRANDON...BURLINGTON...
CANAAN...CANTON...DANBY...ESSEX JUNCTION...FAIR HAVEN...MALONE...
MASSENA...MIDDLEBURY...MONTPELIER...MORRISVILLE...NEWCOMB...
NEWPORT...OGDENSBURG...PLATTSBURGH...POTSDAM...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...
SARANAC LAKE...SOUTH BURLINGTON...SPRINGFIELD...ST. ALBANS...
ST. JOHNSBURY...SWANTON...VERGENNES...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...
WILLSBORO AND WINOOSKI
1013 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BY MIDDAY AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THIS FRONT
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...CHANGING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS
PICKING UP LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.  WET ROADS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME ICY AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.  IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO
30 MPH RANGE.

WHILE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
BY THEMSELVES...THE COMBINATION OF ALL EVENTS IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THEY MAY EVEN BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  IF THIS IS THE CASE...THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS IN THESE SITUATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG
OR DAMAGING.  THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
WEATHER REPORTS ON SNOW...WINDS...AND ICY ROADS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1116 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

VTZ004-007>012-018-019-252100-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-
ORANGE VT-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-
WINDSOR VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...BETHEL...BRANDON...CANAAN...
DANBY...FAIR HAVEN...MIDDLEBURY...MONTPELIER...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...
SPRINGFIELD...ST. JOHNSBURY...VERGENNES AND WHITE RIVER JUNCTION
1116 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
THROUGH 4 PM EST...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FROM ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH 4 PM EST. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS VERMONT LATE THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
AFFECTING MUCH OF VERMONT INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEY HAVE
ALREADY CAUSED HAIL AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT.

WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...TAKE SHELTER INDOORS. PLEASE
REPORT ANY LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MURRAY/WFO BTV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1123 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

VTZ011-019-251722-
EASTERN RUTLAND VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRANDON...DANBY...FAIR HAVEN AND RUTLAND
1123 AM EST THU NOV 25 2004

AT 1120 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO RUTLAND COUNTY VERMONT. THE LINE WAS
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH...AND WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM BRANDON...SOUTH TO
THE CITY OF RUTLAND AND DANBY THROUGH 1215 PM...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF BUT TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS
ARE ADVISED TO SEEK SHELTER WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

JMG