Drought in Utah, December 1 to 31, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
321 PM MST TUE NOV 30 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...
COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THICKENING LATE. BELIEVE THESE
CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD UP LOW TEMPS A BIT...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
MODELS ARE CALLING FOR. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
AGAIN AND A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

NEXT TROUGH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS SHOWED.
PRECIPATION WILL BE SCANT AND MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HAVE MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES HERE. GENERAL FLOW WED BECOMES WESTERLY WITH BETTER
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS...THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
VERTICAL MIXING SOMEWHAT WED AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH REMNANT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
OVER NW FACING SLOPES WED NIGHT AND THURS. KEPT IT COOL AGAIN FOR
THUR MORNING WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
RELATIVELY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...THE FIRST WAVE BRUSHES THE NORTH THU/THU NIGHT AS
FLOW SPLITS AND A LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHERN CA. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS WAVE AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY.
THEN ON SAT THE SOUTHWEST LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND OPEN UP. THE
12Z GFS BRINGS IT OVER THE 4-CORNERS SAT AFTERNOON THEN ONTO THE
PLAINS BY SUN AFTERNOON. AGAIN HARDLY ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH COLD AIR. SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS RESTRICTED
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM OVERRUNNING MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
FLAT RIDGE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM IS A LITTLE STRONGER...AND COMES IN THE
FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. TROUGH PASSAGE IS SCHEDULED
FOR MON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT ON MON NIGHT. GOOD COLD AIR FORECAST
AT THIS TIME...AND BETTER MOISTURE. BUT TIME WILL TELL HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE MOUNTAINS/SLIGHT CHANCE
VALLEYS THROUGH TUE FOR TIMING/INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

&&

CJC/EH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 AM MST TUE NOV 30 2004

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011245-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
545 AM MST TUE NOV 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE TO 20 BELOW
ZERO AT SUNRISE...WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FROSTBITE TO EXPOSED SKIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT AGAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

JAD