Thunderstorms erupted along the Davis Mountains in southwest Texas during the afternoon and evening of the 30th. Several of these thunderstorms became severe as they propagated northeast across the Trans Pecos and produced large hail and damaging winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Thunderstorms erupted along the Davis Mountains in southwest Texas during the afternoon and evening of the 30th. Several of these thunderstorms became severe as they propagated northeast across the Trans Pecos and produced large hail and damaging winds. The most significant impacts from the storms occurred in the community of Grandfalls. Damaging winds destroyed two trailer homes and partially removed the roof on a historic church.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 1:59 PM CST, 3 hours 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 259 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004 .SHORT TERM... PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ATTM AS CONVECTION INITIATES JUST WEST OF THE CWA. VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH UA AND MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN 80KT UPPER JET APPROACHING THE AREA. VIS IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SUFFICIENT INSOLATION WEST OF THE PECOS TO GENERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS. THIS AS MORE THAN AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER JET MAX. AXIS OF THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED BY MESOSCALE MODELS TO ROUGHLY TRANSIT THE I20 CORRIDOR...THUS EXPECT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WILL BE GREATEST THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN FA IN AREA OF STRONG FORCING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MESOANALYSIS INDICATING STRONGEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE WESTERN BASIN. FAST PROPAGATION OF STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING UNLESS CELLS TRAIN OVER A GIVEN LOCATION. .LONG TERM... A PIECE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND GOOD COOLING AT 850MB WILL BRING BREEZY NORTH WINDS TO THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BIG BEND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING. GFS AND UKMET INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IF THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES IT/S TREND OF INCREASING POPS...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA REMAINS RATHER WEAK... BUT MODELS SUGGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD CONTINUE THE RECENT WET SPELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 62 81 55 72 / 40 20 30 20 CARLSBAD NM 57 80 54 70 / 40 10 20 20 DRYDEN TX 62 84 62 77 / 20 20 40 30 FORT STOCKTON TX 61 82 58 74 / 30 20 40 30 GUADALUPE PASS TX 55 75 49 66 / 40 10 20 20 HOBBS NM 58 80 52 68 / 40 10 20 20 MARFA TX 50 76 51 70 / 40 20 30 30 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 61 82 55 72 / 40 20 30 20 ODESSA TX 62 82 55 72 / 40 20 30 20 WINK TX 61 85 57 74 / 40 10 30 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && 10/06
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 216 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-010830- ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES- GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY- TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER- 216 PM CDT (116 PM MDT) THU SEP 30 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCLUDE THOSE FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS...NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND EAST ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION. DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS TONIGHT MAY HELP TO LIMIT THIS THREAT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD STORMS THREATEN THE AREA AND WARNINGS ISSUED. LINDLEY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 157 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>047-050>052-010100- ANDREWS TX-BORDEN TX-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY NM-DAWSON TX- EDDY COUNTY PLAINS NM-GAINES TX- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY NM-HOWARD TX-MARTIN TX- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY NM-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY NM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDREWS...ARTESIA...BIG SPRING... CARLSBAD...GAIL...HOBBS...LAMESA...LOVINGTON...SEMINOLE... STANTON AND TATUM 157 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004 THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #849 UNTIL 800 PM CDT (700 PM MDT) FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN WEST TEXAS...ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...HOWARD AND MARTIN. IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...EDDY AND LEA. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE CITY OF ANDREWS... ARTESIA...BIG SPRING...CARLSBAD...GAIL...HOBBS...LAMESA... LOVINGTON...SEMINOLE...STANTON AND TATUM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL 3/4 OF AN INCH OR GREATER AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE IN OR NEAR TO THE WATCH AREA...CHECK PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED.
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 175 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:25 UTC.
2 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Department of Public Safety trooper reported penny to quarter size hail and "high" winds from the intersection of Interstate 10 and Texas Highway 17 north to Saragosa.
Law enforcement officials reported quarter to golfball size hail in Grandfalls. Minor damage to vehicles was reported.
Strong to severe thunderstorms over Pecos County spawned a left moving (anticyclonic) severe storm that rapidly propagated over the town of Grandfalls. Quarter to golfball size hail was reported in addition to damaging winds. Five power poles were snapped along State Route 11 just southeast of town. In town, an abandon mobile home was rolled by the winds and destroyed while the roof of another mobile home in the southwest portions of the community was blown onto a nearby pickup truck. Several trees were uprooted and a historic church also sustained serious roof damage.A damage survey conducted by the National Weather Service concluded that the severe winds that produced the damage was uniform in direction, blowing debris from the southwest to the northeast. The damage swath covered an area three miles wide. These observations were consistent with the occurrence of a large downburst, or macroburst.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5422078, 5422079, 5422080.