Thunderstorms developed over the Davis Mountains during the afternoon of the 7th. Nickel size hail accompanied very heavy rainfall near the McDonald Observatory north of Fort Davis.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed over the Davis Mountains during the afternoon of the 7th. Nickel size hail accompanied very heavy rainfall near the McDonald Observatory north of Fort Davis.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 6, 2:59 PM CST, 8 hours 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 359 PM CDT WED OCT 6 2004 .SHORT TERM... TIME IS SHORT AND THIS WILL BE BRIEF. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA IS FORECAST BY A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS TO SWING EAST OVERNIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD INTENSIFY THE UPPER LEVEL JET... AND WHILE WE DONT SEE AS GOOD A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AS WE DID LAST NIGHT...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ACT ON AMPLE MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.5 CM/ AND INSTABILITY /H7-H5 DELTA T OVER 18C/ TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. LAST NIGHTS MCS HAS MESOED OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT CLEARING AND ASSOCIATED INSOLATION OVER SOUTHWESTERN ZONES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RAISE MUCAPES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES PROVIDE FOCI FOR INITIATION. KINEMATIC PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING SUPERCELLS AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...THUS WE EXPECT THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE MULTICELLS AT FIRST THEN EVOLVING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE ONCE COLD POOLS ORGANIZE OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER WE CANT RULE OUT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY GENERATION IS MAXIMIZED INVOF BOUNDARIES. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT...AND GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN ITS PRESENT CONFIGURATION AND EXTEND IT THROUGH TOMORROW. SHORT TERM WIND AND DEWPOINT GRIDS REFLECT A CONSENSUS OF MODEL FIELDS BLENDED WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. HPC MAN QPF GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE IN AMOUNTS...BUT SINCE WE EXPECT A LATER INITIATION...WE HAVE POSITIONED THE QPF GRIDS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT. POP...WX... AND SKY GRIDS WERE THEN DRAWN OFF THE QPF GRIDS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. LASTLY...THE MIN TEMP GRID WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD PERSISTENCE. .LONG TERM... EXPECTING A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO BE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND 500 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION..PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS80 WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW. BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUING THE CHANCE POPS WITH CONTINUED ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN OKLAHOMA WITH INSTABILITY CONTINUING. LOOKS LIKE A BREATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIVES DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DECIDED TO KEEP AN ISOLATED POP IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. PROBABLY LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THIS HAPPENING SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUMPS UP AHEAD OF THE SECOND PACIFIC SYSTEM. UNSETTLED WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BECOME A PLAYER EITHER NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT LEAST 20 POPS LATE MONDAY AND BEYOND EVERYWHERE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROGGED WITH DECENT BACKING OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 57 74 56 77 / 90 50 30 30 CARLSBAD NM 59 74 56 77 / 80 40 30 20 DRYDEN TX 61 77 60 79 / 80 40 30 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 62 75 58 78 / 80 40 30 20 GUADALUPE PASS TX 55 71 54 72 / 70 40 20 20 HOBBS NM 55 72 55 73 / 90 50 30 30 MARFA TX 57 71 50 75 / 70 40 30 20 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 57 75 57 77 / 90 50 30 30 ODESSA TX 57 75 58 78 / 90 50 30 30 WINK TX 61 82 55 83 / 80 40 30 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && 70/12
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 433 PM CDT WED OCT 6 2004 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-071000- ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES- GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY- TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER- 433 PM CDT (333 PM MDT) WED OCT 6 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ACT ON ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG BEND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE LATE TONIGHT...AND SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THESE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE. LASTLY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR. AS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN ARROYOS AND DRAWS... LOW WATER CROSSINGS...URBAN AREAS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING THURSDAY AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN YOUR AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED WEST OF AN ANDREWS... KERMIT...TO MARFA LINE BEFORE SUNSET...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST TEXAS AFTER SUNSET. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 166 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:38 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 5 hail, 4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A linear complex of convection initiated over Reeves County and produced severe wind gusts as reported by both law enforcement officials and trained storm spotters.
A severe thunderstorm at the south end of the developing squall line produced large hail over Valentine. Golfball size hail covered the ground and broke numerous windows.
Severe thunderstorm winds broke large tree limbs up to half a foot in diameter near a rural residence in northeastern Winkler County.
A bow-shaped segment of the linear complex moved across central Ector County. Damaging thunderstorm winds blew down traffic signs in West Odessa. Power lines also were blown down in Odessa. In addition, a few windows were broken by the winds and several garbage dumpsters were blown into the city streets. No injuries were reported.
Penny size hail was reported in Andrews.
Flash flooding resulted in high water that inundated a few city streets in West Odessa.
A storm spotter reported severe thunderstorm winds that downed large tree limbs near a rural residence in eastern Midland County.
Law enforcement officials estimated severe thunderstorm wind gusts to 60 MPH in Lamesa.
Flash flooding conditions developed during the pre-dawn hours when flowing high water forced the closures of numerous city streets in Lamesa. By 06:00 CST, the flash flood threat had spread north of the city. High water was reported flowing over U.S. Highway 87 north of Lamesa, and traffic was detoured away from the flooded area.
An isolated severe storm developed in the wake of a departing squall line and produced large hail along U.S. Highway 285 in northwestern Pecos County.
Local officials reported flash flooding in northern Pecos County. At 04:23 CST high water was reported flowing over Farm to Market Road 1776 northwest of Fort Stockton. Additional rainfall and runoff caused the flooding to persist through the late morning hours.A linear convective complex developed over the west Texas Upper Trans Pecos region shortly before midnight CST on the 6th. This activity propagated east across the Permian Basin during the early morning hours of the 7th and produced damaging winds and large hail.
The Jeff Davis County Emergency Manager reported flash flooding in low lying areas along State Highway 118 near the McDonald Observatory.
Nickel size hail was reported near the McDonald Observatory.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5427662, 5427661, 5427663, 5427664, 5427665, 5427666, 5427667, 5427669, 5427668, 5427670, 5427736, 5427671, 5427672, 5427735.