1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 4, 2:52 PM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 305 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004 .DISCUSSION...A FORWARD PROPAGATING...BUT RAGGED...MCS IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS. FEEDER CELLS AHEAD OF THE MCS INDICATE IT WILL MOVE AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS/HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 12Z NCEP MODELS AND OTHER CENTERS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT IS IN A GENERAL SENSE...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...STALLED FRONT...MOIST GULF FETCH...AND EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DICTATE CONVECTIVE TIMING. THE MOST FAVORABLE OF THESE IS THE CURRENT MCS...AND TIMING THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS INTO OUR AREA ON THU. THIS LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO SEEMS THE CATALYST FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COAST... FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE COAST. THIS IS A CLASSIC SOUTH TEXAS HEAVY RAIN SITUATION...NORMALLY IN WINTERTIME...BUT THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN MOVES TOWARD A TYPICAL WINTER SCENARIO WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. NEXT WEEK. HENCE THE MODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY ARE IN CONCERT AND THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST. OVERALL...WILL FORECAST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TONIGHT THROUGH THU... THEN DROP TO GHOST 10 POPS FRI...AND ZERO POPS SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO LOWER MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUE-THU DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDCOVER/ RAIN. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING NOW...AS THE CURRENT MCS SEEMS TO HAVE ENOUGH SPEED AND SMALL ENOUGH COVERAGE AREA THAT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW TWO INCHES EVERYWHERE...AND BELOW ONE INCH IN MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE THE SITUATION FOR TOMORROW THROUGH THU...BUT A WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EAST WILL BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 77 66 78 / 60 70 30 70 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 80 66 77 / 60 70 30 70 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 80 70 79 / 70 60 30 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 79 68 78 / 60 70 30 70 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 26/18
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-051100- ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT- DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES- KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS- UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA- 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A JUNCTION TO CATARINA LINE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AN UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER TEXAS TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LEVELS SUPPORT MAINLY A THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL. TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1138 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2004 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-042100- ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT- DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES- KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS- UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA- 1138 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2004 ...WET EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK... A SERIES OF RAIN MAKING WEATHER SYSTEMS COMING FROM THE WEST THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN...WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS COMES IN WAKE OF HEAVY RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...THAT CAN POTENTIALLY FORM FROM THIS WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN...WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY...THE CHANCE OF RAIN MAY CONTINUE FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO FOLLOW. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding from a general 1 to 2 inch rain countywide, with totals along the San Saba County line of up to 4 inches, caused widespread flash flooding. A bridge on CR413 around 10 miles northwest of Llano was washed out due to the flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5424640.