Flash Flood and Flooding in Texas, November 15 to 19, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CST MON NOV 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS. LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE GIVING A DECENT MOISTURE FEED INTO THE AREA WHILE VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
RAIN OVER THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST TRACK  OF THE CUTOFF LOW...
BUT RAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY SPREAD FARTHER NORTHEAST AS IS HAPPENING
TODAY. HAVE KEPT HIGH RELATIVELY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST. AM GOING MUCH
BELOW MOS TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
RAIN WILL PREVENT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE
CURRENT SOUTHWEST LOW MOVES AWAY. THERE MAY NOT BE AN EXTENDED DRY
PERIOD UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  59  55  59 /  70  50  60  70
HOBART OK         52  57  54  58 /  90  70  70  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  57  56  59 /  70  70  80  70
GAGE OK           47  56  52  59 /  90  60  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     52  58  53  59 /  70  40  50  60
DURANT OK         55  60  56  62 /  50  50  60  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST MON NOV 15 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP PERSISTENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING FOR THE
MOST PART...WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND LITTLE OR NO THUNDER. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE
NORTH INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...IF ELEVATED LAYERS OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR CAN BE
TRANSPORTED THAT FAR NORTH. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
WEAK AT BEST...CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SLIM TO
NONE THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY NOV 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...30 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...0 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AS THE
STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH
RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER MANY OF THE SAME PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL STORM TOTALS EASILY COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES IN
SOME LOCALES BY LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS KIND OF LONG-DURATION RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO
RISES ON CREEKS AND RIVERS BY LATE WEEK...AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
IN SOME AREAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 7 AM
TUESDAY...NOVEMBER 16.

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