Flash Flood in Texas, November 14, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CST SUN NOV 14 2004

.SHORT TERM...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS RELATIVELY THE SAME AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER THE
CWA IN GOOD DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.  AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...RESULTING IN SLOWLY INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MASKED...FOR THE MOST PART...IN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE PROGGED TO MOVE
OVER...OR TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT.  SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO
SATURATED...EXPECT TO SEE RA/DZ TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION
TO AREAS OF FOG.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE
WILL BE MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SAME...BUT ALSO LIFT IN THE RRQ OF AN
EXITING H25 90 KT JET.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM GRADUALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE GUADALUPES.  THE BOWL APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY LOCATION LEFT BELOW
FREEZING.  SINCE STRONG WAA WILL PERSIST...WILL INCLUDE ONLY A MIX
OF RA/SN TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR WINDS TO STAY ABOVE HIGH WIND CRITERIA IN THE
GUADALUPE PASS.  WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN NPW FOR 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS IN THE PASS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...SO WILL EXTEND THIS WARNING UNTIL THE NEXT ZONE ISSUANCE
AND ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO RE/EVALUATE.

.LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE NEARLY SOUTHERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...AS THE GFS DOES SHOW STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SO HAVE INSERTED CATEGORICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS BOTH DAYS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...GIVEN THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT TO LOOK INTO
FURTHER. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBLITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS 90 KNOT JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
APPROACHES. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN OUR
AFTERNOON HWO ISSUANCE...AS WELL AS HINTING TOWARD ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH SO THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT MONDAY NIGHT/S LOW WILL BE NEAR OR POTENTIALLY EVEN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MONDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH.

MODELS (AT LEAST THE ETA AND GFS) SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE TRENDED
POPS UPWARD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY DEPICTED
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AND THIS MAY SEND A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY OCCUR BY SUNDAY AS A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM NORTHWEST CANADA TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL LOW...AS THE EUROPEAN
MODEL SOLUTION HAS A DEEPER TROUGH CARVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MINIMAL POPS INSERTED ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             43  52  55  59 / 100  80  60  80
CARLSBAD NM               40  44  45  54 / 100  90  80  80
DRYDEN TX                 50  58  56  62 /  80  80  70  80
FORT STOCKTON TX          45  53  52  61 /  90  80  70  80
GUADALUPE PASS TX         34  43  41  53 /  90  90  80  80
HOBBS NM                  42  48  50  56 / 100  90  70  80
MARFA TX                  43  52  45  56 /  80  90  80  80
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   44  52  54  59 / 100  80  70  80
ODESSA TX                 43  52  53  59 / 100  80  70  80
WINK TX                   45  54  53  61 / 100  90  70  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 400 AM CST FOR GUADALUPE PASS.
NM...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

67/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
710 PM CST SUN NOV 14 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151030-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
710 PM CST (610 PM MST) SUN NOV 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY CHANGE TO SLEET AND OR SNOW.
LESS THAN ONE INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. TRAVELERS ON U.S.
HIGHWAY 62/180 AND NEW MEXICO STATE HIGHWAY 137 SHOULD USE CAUTION.

A STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN GUADALUPE PASS...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH. THIS WILL
ADDITIONALLY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS GIVEN POTENTIALLY
SLICK ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA.  AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL INCREASE.  SINCE THE GROUND IS WET FROM RECENT
RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 PM CST SUN NOV 14 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
320 PM CST (220 PM MST) SUN NOV 14 2004

...COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
   NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...

A COOL AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.  A VERY WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS PERIODIC
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM.

PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR...WITH STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS.  THIS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE AREAS WHICH
WILL BE IMPACTED MOST REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.  A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND STATEMENTS ON THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.