Damaging Wind in Texas, May 1, 2004

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
830 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2004

830 AM UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES/CWF/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SPEED OF
FRONT. FRONT MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST WITH STRONG 3HR PRESS RISES OF
4-5MB OVER S-CNTRL TX AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. HAVE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AS FRONT MOVES THRU. RAISED SCA OVER BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT. HELD ONTO TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND HAVE NOT
YET CLEARED ANY COUNTIES FROM SVR WATCH. WILL BE ASSESSING THIS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

545 AM UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
THRU NOON FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. REFER TO SVR TSTM WATCH 142 ISSUED
BY SPC FOR DETAILS.

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM JUST
NORTH OF AUSTIN TO DEL RIO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING
ALONG FRONT AND ELEVATED BEHIND AS STRONG COLD POOL SURGES SOUTH.
STRONG 3 HR PRESS RISES BEHIND FRONT WILL ALLOW FRONT TO ACCELERATE
DOWN THE RIO GRANDE APPROACHING NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CRP CWA AROUND
11-12Z. FURTHER EAST...INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE INFLOW OFF
GULF OF MEXICO HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS UPR TX COAST. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER THE HGX CWA
AND SPC HAS ISSUED BOX FOR THIS. RUC PICKED UP WELL ON THIS AND
SHOWS AREA OF INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MSAS SFC PRESS ANALYSIS SHOWS FALLS HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER WEST...FROM AUSTIN COUNTY SOUTH THRU VICTORIA AND CALHOUN
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOL/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES AND STREAM
NORTH AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP NW TO SE
THRU CWA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXCELLENT
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODEST CAPES SUPPORT ISOL THREAT FOR SEVERE.
BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
AND ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA THRU 7 PM...WITH MAIN
THREAT BEING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. LIKELY WATCH MAY BE DROPPED
OUT WEST BEFORE 7 PM. FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY SEE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THRU EARLY
EVENING. BRISK NORTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN SCA
CONDITIONS. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE COASTAL BEND SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SOUTH TEXAS. VERY COOL READINGS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE RECORD LOW AT CRP. THE
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEK WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INCREASING BY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS MEXICO THURSDAY AND
INTO SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CONFIDENT ON THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI  77 59 76 52 79 / 80 50 10 00 00
VICTORIA        75 55 75 48 79 / 90 50 10 00 00
LAREDO          76 58 78 55 83 / 70 30 05 00 00
ALICE           77 57 77 51 81 / 80 50 10 00 00
ROCKPORT        77 59 76 57 78 / 90 60 10 00 00
COTULLA         75 53 76 50 82 / 80 30 05 00 00

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SVR TSTM WATCH THRU NOON ALL COUNTIES
FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING ALL COUNTIES THRU 7 PM
SCA BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS
SCA EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING OFFSHORE

&&

76/JR...SHORT-TERM
89/TMT...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-021100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL BEND.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL BEND. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WINDS GREATER THAN 58 MPH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
BRISK NORTH WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED
TO THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION THIS MORNING.

JR/TMT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2004

TXZ229>234-239>247-011300-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL
   NOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL NOON CDT SATURDAY.

THE WATCH INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...
DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE
OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA
AND WEBB. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE ALICE...ARANSAS
PASS...BEEVILLE...BENAVIDES...CORPUS CHRISTI...COTULLA...
ENCINAL ...GEORGE WEST...GOLIAD...INGLESIDE...KINGSVILLE...
LAREDO...MATHIS...PORT ARANSAS...PORT LAVACA...PORT
OCONNOR...PORTLAND...REFUGIO...ROBSTOWN...ROCKPORT...
SEADRIFT...SINTON...SKIDMORE...THREE RIVERS...TILDEN AND VICTORIA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF A DIME
OR LARGER...STRONG WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND EVEN TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE
GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER TRY TO OUTRUN
SEVERE WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

TMT