Drought in Montana, May 1 to 31, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
834 PM MDT FRI APR 30 2004

.UPDATE...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT...
DAYTIME CUMULUS STARTING TO DISSIPATE WITH SETTING SUN. MADE A FEW
SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS. SHORTWAVE EXITING NE MONTANA AT
THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GOING
ZONE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE TO ZFP. FORRESTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THANKS
TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TODAY WAS A
BREEZY/UNSETTLED DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILT UP AND PRODUCED LIGHT
POPCORN RAIN SHOWERS (EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW SHOWER IN SIDNEY AT 145
PM) OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A VERY SHARP RIDGE JUST INLAND
OF THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST WITH A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER MONTANA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRIFTING EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON/S
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THE EVENING MAINLY DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WILL DO NOTHING MORE THAN KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE STABLE AND DRIER. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER
THAN TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX A BIT TO THE
SURFACE. TEMPS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LARGE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE EAST AND GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE MONTANA PLAINS...BY-PASSING THE WESTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE...WITH CONDITIONS COMING CLOSE TO READ FLAG CONDITIONS.
WITH 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 18C...TEMPS WILL WARMING INTO
THE 70S MOST PLACES.  JAMBA

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A COUPLE OF FRONTS
TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA.  SOUTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK
WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TO
GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WORKS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE REMAIN NORTH IN CANADA...AND THUS EXPECT THE FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY WITH THE ONLY IMMEDIATE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER BEING A WIND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AFTER SUNSET NOT REAL FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER
WIND. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY BUT
IT WILL LIKELY TURN BREEZY IF NOT WINDY. LATEST GFS INDICATES
30-40KT WIND BETWEEN 850-700H. SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THE
STRONGER WIND TO THE SURFACE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 700H. ALSO LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE DECENT PRESSURE RISES DURING THE DAY. BUMPED UP
THE WIND SPEEDS JUST A BIT IN THE GRIDS...AND ADDED WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS COOLER THAN SUNDAY...GOOD MIXING AND A
HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO CLIMB WELL THROUGH THE 60S
WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY...A SECOND FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
CLOUDS BUT PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN MONDAY. ALSO APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE LESS WIND.

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. OUR UPPER FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEAK RIDGING AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN FOR NOW IS GO DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA.
DIFFICULT IN SUCH A FLOW TO TRY TO TIME OUT INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
THAT COULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.  THE INHERITED GRIDS HAVE SOME LOW
POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH LOOK REASONABLE. POSSIBLE
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY...BUT UNTIL MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. CB

&&

CLIMO...WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE MONTH IT LOOKS LIKE THIS APRIL
WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS A FAIRLY DRY AND MILD MONTH AT
GLASGOW. THE TEMPERATURE HAS AVERAGED 3.2 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE 29TH OF THE MONTH. THERE HAS BEEN A TOTAL OF 0.59 INCHES
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRED ON ONLY THREE DAYS THIS
MONTH...AND NO PRECIPITATION WAS RECORDED THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF THE
MONTH. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A TRACE OF SNOW SO FAR THIS MONTH. IN THE
LAST 55 YEARS...1949 AND 1998 WERE THE ONLY TWO YEARS WHERE NO SNOW
WAS RECORDED IN GLASGOW.  THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 7
YEARS...INCLUDING 2004 WHEN ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW WAS RECORDED DURING
THE MONTH OF APRIL. CB

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&