Hail in Texas, March 4, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE
DALLAS METROPLEX TOWARD THE AREA.  OUR AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATE TEMPS ACROSS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM UP...BUT A DRY
SLOT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS A LITTLE DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/S SEVERE WEATHER SOUNDING ANALYSIS.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO ERROR IN TRACKING THIS UPPER LOW THE LAST
24 HOURS...AS IT HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  SPEED OF THE LOW HAS ALSO BEEN OFF BY THE
MODELS...BUT THEY ALL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME BY SLOWING IT DOWN. CURRENT
POSITION OF THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO...WITH THE MODELS
FORECASTING IT MOVING IT INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE COMING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS PROMISING.  THE ESTIMATED SQUALL LINE POSITION IS
CURRENTLY NEAR A CLARKSVILLE...TYLER LINE BY 430 PM.  THEN SLOWING
DOWN AND REACHING THE LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS OF TEXAS BY 700
PM.  AFTER THIS THINGS REALLY SLOW DOWN AND THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE
PRECIPITATION EXITING NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT HEAVY RAIN WILL SET UP ACROSS...NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND DEEP EAST TEXAS TONIGHT...THUS I
WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH TO COINCIDE WITH THIS FORECAST.  LATEST MCD
INDICATES A TORNADO WATCH IS MOST LIKELY ON THE WAY FROM SPC...AS
STORMS ARE HOLDING THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUE MARCH TOWARD THE
AREA.

THINGS CLEAR OUT TOMORROW WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AND EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GFS
MINS...THEN BALANCE BETWEEN GFS AND MOS ON MAXES.  SORRY ABOUT NOT
DISCUSSING MODELS IN MORE DETAIL...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  70  48  68 / 100  50  0    0
MLU  64  69  50  67 / 100  60  20   0
TXK  56  68  46  66 / 100  30  0    0
TYR  56  72  46  68 /  60  20  0    0
LFK  60  71  48  70 / 100  50  0    0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EAST OF A
LINE FROM TEXARKANA TO HOPE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ALL LOUISIANA ZONES.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR THE DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES AREA.

&&

ELEVEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-051200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO TYLER
TEXAS.  THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK.

A SQUALL LINE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY 500 PM...TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL. THUS THE MEDIA...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND
STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
IS FILTERED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA.