Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, June 18 to 19, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE EVENING IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WITH
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN PLACE WITH MOST
NOTICABLE STRETCHING FROM NEAR I-40 AT THE TX/NM STATE LINE TO SOUTH
OF DUMAS AND THEN TO NEAR PAMPA.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
NEAR VEGA SOUTEASTWARD TOWARDS FLOYDADA...WITH A PSEUDO-TRIPLE POINT
NEAR VEGA. INSTABILITY NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY AND WIND
SPEEDS NOT AS STRONG ALOFT...BUT STILL HAVE GREAT TURNING WITH HEIGHT
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADOES AGAIN...BUT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND CLOSE TO ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES
OR ON STORMS THAT SPLIT AND TURN RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW. FOR STORMS
THAT DO MANAGE TO GO RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
SR HELICITY VALUES BTW 200-300 M**2/S**2 AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

NOW ON TO THE FORECAST...PRETTY MUCH CONCENTRATED ON THE FIRST 72
HOURS.  DID DECIDED TO BUMP MAX TEMPS DOWN A CAT FOR TOMORROW AGAIN
AS LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OK PNHDL.  ALSO...
APPEARS A SECOND FRONT IS TRYING TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH KS AND
COULD POSSIBLY HELP TO INITIATE ANOTHER MCS UP THERE WHICH SHOULD
LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER NORTH TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS.  HOWEVER...
DID NOT DROP MORE THAN A CATEGORY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HAD HARD TIME
HANGING IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS.  DID
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TX
AND OK PNHDLS...AS WELL AS SW TX PNHDL...BUT LEFT REST OF POP
STRUCTURES ALONE.  PRETTY MUCH WILL BE UP TO EACH SHIFT TO DECIDE HOW
TO BUILD POP FORECAST AROUND DAILY CONDITIONS...AS LOCATIONS OF
FRONTS AND BOUNDARIES WILL CHANGE DAY-TO-DAY.

THINGS MIGHT START TO DRY OUT ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS BRIEFLY TO THE REGION.  MODELS STILL HINTING AT ANOTHER
FRONT TRYING TO SLIDE DOWN INTO THE AREA FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO LEFT CURRENT GRIDS/FCST FROM SUNDAY ON UNCHANGED.  IF SAME
PATTERN SETS UP AS THIS WEEK DID...COULD SEE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
RAIN.  ALL IN ALL...MOST CHANGES MADE IN FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH REST
OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.  LET THE RAIN (HOPEFULLY WITHOUT SEVERE)
FALL...WE NEED IT

FCSTID = JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     62  80  64  92 /  80  30  30  20
BEAVER       58  77  60  87 /  90  40  40  40
BOISE CITY   57  79  58  90 /  80  40  40  20
BORGER       61  80  63  93 /  80  30  30  30
BOYS RANCH   61  83  62  93 /  90  30  30  20
CANYON       62  81  64  92 /  80  30  30  20
CLARENDON    64  81  64  94 /  80  30  30  20
DALHART      61  81  60  91 /  80  40  40  20
GUYMON       58  77  59  89 /  90  40  40  30
HEREFORD     61  81  64  91 /  80  30  30  20
LIPSCOMB     62  74  64  88 /  80  40  40  30
PAMPA        64  78  64  91 /  80  30  30  30
SHAMROCK     66  78  65  92 /  70  30  30  30
WELLINGTON   67  81  65  93 /  70  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR TXZ001-020 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10PM.
OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OKZ001-003 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10PM.

&&

03/17/24

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-191100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY EVENING.

COCKRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
710 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

TXZ007-008-012-190100-
HUTCHINSON-MOORE-POTTER-
710 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER LAKE MEREDITH...

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE MEREDITH...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.  THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE...FREQUENT AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.  PERSONS IN
AND ON LAKE MEREDITH SHOULD BE SEEKING SAFE SHELTER AS THIS AND
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM THE SOUTH END OF LAKE
MEREDITH TO NEAR FRITCH AND SANFORD THROUGH 8PM.

JORDAN